The visit of US Speaker Nancy Pelosi to Taiwan set-off a major Sino-US spat. International markets shuddered, fearing military confrontation between the two biggest economies of the world. Surprisingly, Pelosi got bipartisan support for not backing down before Chinese threats. While her visit may have got the Chinese riled up, the cancellation would have emboldened China, with worse consequences for the region.
Although the US government publicly distanced itself from the Pelosi decision President Joe Biden could have dissuaded her if he seriously so wanted. Be that as it may, the Chinese commenced military exercises all around sea-surrounded Taiwan, simulating what the Taiwanese characterised as a full-scale attack. PLA planes repeatedly breached the midline over the Taiwan Strait. The US and Taiwan chose to ignore the Chinese sabre-rattling. China cancelled military and climate change talks with the US.
China issued a White Paper, a third since the previous ones in 1993 and 2000. It argued that “National reunification by peaceful means is the first choice of the Chinese Communist Party”. It did not rule out use of force, as a last resort. Unlike in earlier papers an assurance, post Chinese annexation, to not deploy security forces in Taiwan was dropped. However, the “One Nation Two Systems” theory sounds hollow after the fate of Hong Kong, where basic freedoms and democracy stand curtailed. The paper calls it as “integrated under the one-China principle”. Ironically, the paper concludes that assimilation of Hong Kong and Macao has been a “resounding success”.
Due to this public opinion in Taiwan has turned away from accepting Chinese annexation. As per latest polls only 2% identify themselves as Chinese compared to 25% a decade ago. An aggressive and authoritarian regime under President Xi Jinping has lost Taiwanese public support, resulting in freedom-minded leaders getting elected. A KMT delegation, representing past thinking, visited China, avoiding Beijing. US announced that its ships would be transiting the Taiwan Strait despite Chinese claims over it. The US aircraft-carrier USS Ronald Reagan though in the region was unlikely to be deployed in the Strait to avoid provoking China.
India maintains that its membership of the four-nation QUAD, consisting besides it of Australia, Japan, and the US, is non-military and short of an alliance. But its aim is undeniably to contain China and strengthen democratic forces countering it. At the very least China so sees it. Thus, it is not surprising that while China is happy to exploit the Indian market and hose its products to the large Indian middle class it is reluctant to roll-back its forward deployment and intrusions in the Ladakh segment of the Line of Actual Control (LAC). Resultingly, little progress was seen during the 16th round of bilateral mil-to-mil talks. China in fact has been enhancing its infrastructure along the LAC and even announcing construction of G-695, a new Tibet-Xinjiang highway, running at places very close to contested areas.
India has adopted a calibrated approach to China. Chinese telecommunication companies have been raided and tax evasion detected. However, a serious decoupling from China is neither desirable nor possible. Alongside India continues its defence cooperation with the US. In October a joint high altitude military exercise by troops of India and US is planned in Uttarakhand, close to the LAC. Past such exercises were held away from the LAC and at the Himalayan foothills. This signals to China that an attack on Taiwan could open the possibility of a two-front confrontation if India choose at that moment to reacquire PLA-intruded areas.
US Congress is approving a Pacific Island Embassies Act to enable the opening of three US missions in Vanuatu, Kiribati, and Tonga. President Joe Biden has also convened a summit of Pacific Island nations in Washington next month. This is to stymie Chinese intrusion into that vital maritime region, feared after China’s strategic deal with the Solomon Islands. India must be mindful that as the Ukraine war lingers and a stalemate loom, Russian dependence on China is increasing. In 2014, after Russia occupied Crimea, Russia’s trade with China was 10% of the total. Last year it had risen to 18%. Could it reach a level where the Chinese start vetoing cutting-edge defence supplies by Russia to India?
This Sino-US confrontation occurs as President Xi nears the 20th Party Congress, to endorse his permanent power capture. Chinese GDP slowed to .4% in the second quarter. Almost 20% of the new graduates are jobless. Property sales were down 33.4% in July. Beleaguered at home China turns dangerously jingoistic abroad. In India too, price rise and unemployment are agitating the public mind. Change of alliance in Bihar, a major Hindi-belt state, puts BJP on the backfoot. In the US Biden regime needs economic success and drop in fuel price before the crucial November midterm elections. Interplay of domestic and foreign relations test diplomacy and statesmanship, and the next few months could bring more turbulence.
The writer is former secretary, Ministry of External Affairs
