A seventh consecutive term for the Bharatiya Janata Party in Gujarat seems likely, five weeks ahead of the assembly polls. But judging from Home Minister Amit Shah’s recent focus on his home state, the BJP itself is not entirely complacent.
Haunted by the spectre of 2017 and wary of the Aam Aadmi Party’s efforts to emerge as a third force, the BJP is committing considerable time and resources to the assembly elections. Gujarat is of prime importance to Prime Minister Narendra Modi, so a win is not enough; this time, it is aiming at a two-thirds majority (122/182 seats) at the very least. To this end, it needs to recoup its losses in the tribal belt and Saurashtra, while retaining its dominance in urban areas.
In 2017, the BJP wound up with its smallest seatshare (99) since 1995, a result attributed largely to two factors: rural distress owing to a crash in the prices of key agricultural commodities and the Patidar agitation helmed by youth leader Hardik Patel. While neither is a threat this time around, with the latter having quit the Congress and joined the BJP, fresh challenges have emerged.
The AAP is seeking to position itself as the BJP’s main rival in the state by focusing on the urban areas where the BJP swept the polls in 2017, that is, Surat, Vadodara, Rajkot and Ahmedabad. By making extravagant promises in terms of handouts, jobs and quotas, it hopes to gain traction among weaker sections in both rural and urban areas.
The PM’s remarks on the perils of the ‘revadi (freebie) culture’ are being seen in the context of AAP’s array of ‘guarantees’: Rs 1,000 per month to women, dole for unemployed youth, free power, Rs 40 per day for the upkeep of cows, 80% quotas in private sector jobs for locals, direct funding for panchayats, salaries for village heads, and so on.
In Punjab, the AAP goverment’s ‘revadis’ have pushed the state deeper into debt and alarmed economists – to the point of prompting comparisons with Sri Lanka’s bankruptcy – but that hasn’t stopped the party from deploying the same populist strategy in Gujarat.
The AAP’s spin-masters have succeeded in creating a buzz around the party, based on its better-than-expected performance in the Gujarat municipal elections last year. But the BJP has struck back forcefully. When Arvind Kejriwal made waves by dining at the house of an Ahmedabad-based auto rickshaw driver, the BJP released a video of the latter declaring that he was, in fact, a die-hard fan of Narendra Modi!
The AAP’s main problem is that it lacks a credible local face, so the campaign rides on Mr Kejriwal and his deputy, Manish Sisodia. At the end of the day, both are seen as ‘outsiders’. It faced the same problem in Uttarakhand, where the party was decimated despite strenuous efforts and expenditure.
Meanwhile, the Congress has become active, and is trying to leverage the 27 years of anti-incumbency against the BJP. For instance, CM Bhupendra Patel has had to contend with a series of agitations by government employees, including policemen, teachers, health workers, clerks, etc, as well as those by farmers, ex-army servicemen and cow shelters. So problematic did the agitations become that the government had to constitute a five-member team of ministers to resolve the array of grievances.
Of equal concern for the Gujarat government were the Congress-led protests by tribals against the Par-Tapi-Narmada river-linking scheme, forcing the state to back down. The BJP took a major hit in the ST (reserved) constituencies in 2017, with the lion’s share going to the Congress. The latter has since lost out on key tribal leaders, three of whom defected to the BJP, while one passed away. Also, its alliance with the Bharatiya Tribal Party fell apart after the 2017 polls.
The BJP is making a concerted effort to woo tribal voters, who comprise some 15 per cent of the population. The election of Droupadi Murmu (who visited Gujarat earlier this month) as President of India can be seen in that context. As also the fact that the longest route of the BJP’s ‘Gaurav Yatra’ last fortnight was through tribal areas. Besides, the PM is expected to accord national monument status to the Mangarh Dham memorial in Rajasthan’s Banswara, which celebrates tribal participation in the freedom struggle,.
Taking no chances, a flurry of projects for Gujarat have been announced recently – infrastructure development in Saurashtra to the tune of Rs 6,000 crore, a new Indian Air Force base in Banaskantha budgeted at Rs 1,000 crore and MoUs for investments of Rs 5,500 crore in Gujarat at the DefExpo 2022. This is in addition to projects kicked off earlier in the year.
As always, ‘Moditva’ remains the most effective plank in the BJP’s campaign. Its talking points include development, Gujarati ‘asmita’ (pride), the Statue of Unity (Sardar Patel’s anniversary is on October 31), the abrogation of article 370 and the Narmada canal. In the last election, the PM virtually carpet-bombed the state with rallies. How hard he will have to work this time remains to be seen.
Bhavdeep Kang is a senior journalist with 35 years of experience in working with major newspapers and magazines. She is now an independent writer and author
