With elections to the Lok Sabha round the corner, there are challenges galore for the BJP to retain power. In these times when just about every decision of the Narendra Modi government is politicised by a questioning and aggressive Opposition, the BJP’s propensity to do things which help the Hindu cause as opposed to the secular principle is fuelling doubts in the minds of the Muslims.
One issue that is engaging attention is to see how the citizenship amendment bill can be used to help non-Muslim immigrants from Bangladesh, Pakistan and Afghanistan to be granted Indian citizenship on grounds that they are being “religiously persecuted” in these counties.
There are an estimated 31,000 non-Muslim immigrants, mostly Pakistani Hindus, who are on long-term visas and waiting for a nod to get Indian citizenship who the Modi government is out to help. While Hindus constitute 25,447 of these, Sikhs are 5,807, Christians 55, Buddhists and Parsis two each.
These are miniscule numbers but the issue is being raked up beyond all proportion because of the sensitivities involved and since elections are due. The detractors are questioning why there should be two sets of standards for Muslims and for other immigration-seekers but ironically, this is a case where the Hindus, Christians, Buddhists and Parsis are giving the grounds of seeking Indian citizenship as ‘religious persecution’ in their home counties.
With Muslims being an important vote bank in India, the issue was bound to blow up especially at election time and it has in some circles. That it could well influence the voting pattern and could jeopardise the BJP’s chances in Assam and the rest of the northeast where it is rising as a force to reckon with but could help the BJP cause in West Bengal where it is fighting a significantly crucial battle to carve out a niche and break the stranglehold of Mamata Banerjee and her Trinamool Congress over the electorate poses a seemingly hard choice for the BJP.
That the Asom Gana Parishad (AGP), a long-time ally of the BJP, has snapped links with that party in protest over the Citizenship Bill and the All Assam Students Union has also voiced a strong protest is a measure of the reluctance of these outfits to rub the Muslim minority on the wrong side.
All this despite the fact that the Citizenship Bill has little chance of passing muster in the Rajya Sabha where the BJP is in any case not in a majority. The detractors are not only making a political statement in opposing the Bill but also holding out a warning to the BJP against any adventurism in the shape of an ordinance.
The BJP apparently reckons that the votes that it may lose in Assam and the northeast would be more than compensated in West Bengal where the Hindu immigrants would be welcomed with open arms. How justified this optimism is would be revealed when results come. But what should worry the BJP is the opposition to the citizenship amendment bill in the Janata Dal (United) which is a new-found revived ally.
The JD (U) which still hopes to garner Muslim votes in Bihar despite its alliance with the BJP has virtually no presence in Assam but has said that it would oppose the Bill if it comes up before the Rajya Sabha. A resolution passed at the JD (U)’s national office bearers’ meeting recently said that the controversial legislation would threaten the cultural and linguistic identity of indigenous people of Assam.
The party had also decided to send a delegation of its national leaders to Guwahati to extend support to all those political parties and organisations that are opposing the citizenship bill. The latest is that a meeting of the Cabinet held in Imphal, Nagaland has rejected the bill following pressure from various tribal organisations and students’ bodies. At the meeting in question, representatives of the JD (U) and the AGP too joined in.
This should be deemed to be a blow to the BJP and it would be in the fitness of things if it backtracks on the move at least during the sensitive time when elections are weeks away. It is worth recalling that the anti-foreigner agitation in Assam had eventually led to the inking of the Assam Accord which laid down March 24, 1971 as the cut-off date for absorbing migrants. But the amendment bill contradicts this by making December 31, 2014 the cut-off.
There is also opposition to making religion a criterion for citizenship. The Centre needs to understand that the region can easily slip back into separatist turmoil if the situation is not defused and the controversial bill is not put on hold. There is no doubt that the bill would be challenged in the Supreme Court and the Modi government could well face embarrassment if the amendment bill is rejected by the apex court.
There is, indeed, little point in persisting with the legislation which faces defeat in the Rajya Sabha and perhaps even rejection in the Supreme Court. Prudence demands that the BJP see the writing on the wall and not jeopardise its position in the upcoming national polls for an illusory gain. The AGP must be wooed back to the NDA fold and cohesion must return to it with alliance partners like JD (U) not speaking in different voices.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a political commentator and columnist. He has authored four books.
