When Prime Minister Narendra Modi met President Xi Jinping on August 31 in Beijing, the optics alone were enough to make global capitals sit up. Smiles, handshakes, and carefully worded communiqués may seem like the routine fare of diplomacy, but the subtext was electric: two Asian giants, bound by a bloody border history and a trust deficit, were trying to draft a new script of cooperation in the shadow of Donald Trump’s aggressive tariffs and America’s waning credibility in Asia.
The Modi–Xi encounter was not just a bilateral exchange but a message to the world — that India and China may choose wary pragmatism over endless hostility. Yet, the path from intent to outcome is strewn with formidable challenges. Can these two ancient civilizations, which together command one-third of humanity, truly replace America as New Delhi’s principal strategic partner? Or will their history of rivalry, divergent ambitions, and mutual suspicion continue to restrain the promise of this reset?
The SCO Dilemma: A Vajpayee Moment?
For India, the SCO summit evokes a historical parallel: can Modi pull off a Vajpayee-like breakthrough? When Atal Bihari Vajpayee reached out to Pakistan with his Lahore bus journey, he reframed South Asian diplomacy, albeit temporarily. Modi today faces a similar dilemma: should India pursue peace with compromise, or seek leverage through pressure?
If New Delhi confines itself to border disputes, the relationship will remain frozen. But if it embraces a multi-dimensional strategy — spanning economics, counter-terrorism, technology, and climate change — India–China ties could evolve into a new Asian partnership. That requires political courage, public persuasion, and careful risk management.
SCO Endorsement Strengthens India’s Anti-Terror Stand
At the Tianjin summit, the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) extended unequivocal backing to India by condemning the Pahalgam terror attack and aligning with New Delhi’s call for a united global front against terrorism, including the menace of cross-border infiltration. The declaration, adopted by consensus, reflected Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s sharp message against double standards in tackling terror and reiterated that no justification can be given for such violence. For India, this endorsement enhances diplomatic leverage against Pakistan’s proxy war strategy and consolidates support from Eurasian powers, giving New Delhi a stronger hand in shaping regional security discourse.
Global Power Play and the Trump Factor
The most immediate takeaway is that Modi and Xi have placed their engagement in the larger theatre of global power politics. For decades, Washington has set the tone of world order, dictating economic and security architectures from NATO to the Indo-Pacific. But Trump’s trade tariffs, levied indiscriminately on both allies and adversaries, have shaken faith in U.S. reliability. Ironically, the very man who sought to isolate China may have succeeded in nudging Beijing and New Delhi closer together.
By side-lining Washington’s tariff war in their discussions, Modi and Xi signalled that Asia has the capacity to define its own terms. They underscored that reducing India’s yawning $83 billion trade deficit with China was not merely an economic issue but a political necessity. For Modi, narrowing this imbalance is critical to blunt domestic critics who warn that India is surrendering its manufacturing base to Chinese imports. For Xi, offering concessions here is a small price to pay for reshaping Asia’s balance of power.
Toward a Multipolar World
Another key message was categorical: neither India nor China will tolerate mediation in their disputes, whether from Washington, Brussels, or even Moscow. Instead, both leaders stressed the vision of a multipolar world. For too long, America has enjoyed near-monopoly in shaping global institutions, norms, and sanctions regimes. Modi and Xi, with Russia hovering in the background, hinted at an emerging trio capable of creating alternative alignments.
If the U.S. sought to pivot Asia through military alliances, Beijing and New Delhi now propose to pivot the world by making Multipolarity the new grammar of international relations. This is not merely rhetorical. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO), where Russia and China already wield clout, India’s presence strengthens the idea of Eurasian-led security and economic cooperation.
Friends in Development, Rivals in Suspicion
Sceptics argue that India and China are destined to be rivals — one rising, the other already risen; one aligned with the U.S. in the Quad, the other locked in confrontation with Washington. Yet the meeting stressed that New Delhi and Beijing can be development partners without surrendering their sovereignty or strategic space.
Xi, facing slowing growth and demographic challenges, needs stable ties with neighbours to focus on domestic rejuvenation. Modi, aiming to lift India into the $5-trillion league, requires trade, investment, and technology that cannot come solely from the West. If managed wisely, India and China can cooperate on infrastructure, digital economy, renewable energy, and even health — arenas that benefit ordinary citizens rather than merely defence establishments.
Counter-Terrorism and Fair Dealings
Another important takeaway was the agreement to strengthen cooperation against terrorism. For India, this is a litmus test: will China end its habit of shielding Pakistan at international forums, or will Beijing’s rhetoric once again outpace reality? If Xi offers New Delhi a “fair deal” by restraining Islamabad’s adventurism, it could mark a turning point. For China too, stability in South Asia serves its own interests — the Belt and Road cannot thrive in a neighbourhood riven by extremism.
Vital to Be Friends and Neighbours
Geography cannot be wished away. India and China share a 3,488-kilometre border, and decades of confrontation have drained both. Mutual trust — scarce but indispensable — is the currency for peace. The meeting emphasized that it is vital to act as friends and neighbours rather than permanent adversaries. That means reactivating border mechanisms, expanding cultural exchanges, and even engaging provinces and states directly to reduce hostility at the grassroots.
Trump as Catalyst, Not Centrepiece
Ironically, Trump must be credited for catalysing this realignment. His tariffs and unilateralism have pushed three Asian giants — India, China, and Russia — to reimagine their collective weight. The SCO summit served as a reminder that Washington is no longer the only pole of attraction. For New Delhi, this is a delicate balancing act: it must extract maximum benefit from U.S. defence and technology partnerships while simultaneously ensuring it is not trapped in a one-dimensional embrace.
The unspoken message of the Modi–Xi dialogue was clear: Asia will not be viewed through American lenses alone.
Role of Russia: Silent Enabler
Hovering silently but decisively in this unfolding drama is Russia. Moscow, under Vladimir Putin, has long sought to undercut U.S. dominance. While its own economy may be under strain, Russia retains influence in energy markets, defence technology, and Eurasian politics. Putin’s comfort with both Modi and Xi makes Russia a natural facilitator of this rapprochement. At the SCO, Russia plays the role of stabilizer — preventing India–China tensions from spiralling and promoting the larger Eurasian project.
Fallout for America and Asia
The fallout for Washington is stark. If India and China deepen cooperation, America loses leverage over New Delhi as its preferred counterweight to Beijing. Washington’s monopoly over shaping Asian security could erode, forcing the U.S. to recalibrate its Indo-Pacific strategy.
For Asia, the implications are transformative. A stable India–China relationship reduces the chances of war, boosts regional trade, and strengthens multilateral platforms like BRICS, SCO, and ASEAN. Smaller nations may welcome this balance, though some — particularly Japan and Vietnam — could worry about being side-lined in a Sino-Indian condominium.
Challenges Ahead
Yet, let us not romanticize. The challenges are formidable. Mutual suspicion runs deep; border incidents can erupt without warning. India fears encirclement by China’s Belt and Road projects, while Beijing views New Delhi’s participation in the Quad as containment. Domestic politics in both countries often weaponize nationalism, leaving little room for compromise.
To make the current initiative succeed, both Modi and Xi must invest political capital in sustained dialogue, transparent trade practices, and crisis-management mechanisms. Without this, the reset could wither into another footnote in the long chronicle of missed opportunities.
Conclusion: A Moment Laden with Possibility
The Modi–Xi meeting on August 31 was not the end of a rivalry but the tentative beginning of a possibility. It was a recognition that Asia’s future cannot be outsourced to Washington or Brussels. Whether this initiative matures into an enduring partnership depends on whether both leaders can transcend suspicion, temper nationalism, and focus on the development aspirations of their people.
If Modi can indeed pull off a Vajpayee moment at the SCO — replacing hostility with a multi-dimensional partnership — India and China could together rewrite the global power script. For now, the world watches with bated breath: will Asia’s giants stumble yet again, or will they finally rise together as architects of a multipolar world?
(Writer is strategic affairs columnist and senior political analyst based in Shimla)
