Now that voting for the fifth phase is underway, almost two third of India has exercised the right to franchise. Two more phases still remain and these areas are mainly from the Hindi heartland. It would, therefore, be worthwhile to glance at what is happening in the northern states, especially Uttar Pradesh, which has produced most of the prime ministers, including the incumbent Narendra Modi.
Let us start from the beginning. When the election season started, Mayawati was mad at the Congress — so mad that she refused to allow it any room in the mahagathbandhan,which was floated to block Modi from sweeping India’s key state. Even though four of the seven phases are over, she has not cooled off. In fact, the Congress has aggravated its share of problems and its four-month-old government in Madhya Pradesh, which is supported by Mayawati, could be in jeopardy.
Madhya Pradesh Chief Minister Kamal Nath, a smooth operator in politics, is working the phone lines with Mayawati, well aware that if she walks out, so does her alliance partner Akhilesh Yadav, and that means his government starts wobbling. But Mayawati’s fury is as legendary as Kamal Nath’s ability to pull out all stops, when needed.
It all began with Congress leader Jyotiraditya Scindia grabbing Mayawati’s candidate, Lokendra Singh Rajput, in Guna from where he is contesting the general election. Mayawati was supposed to address a rally for Rajput in Guna on May 4 and this was a big public embarrassment for her. Scindia infuriated her further by welcoming Rajput into the Congress on Twitter.
Cong. and BJP Equally Untrustworthy
Mayawati retaliated, also on Twitter, with her oft repeated allegation that the Congress and the BJP are equally untrustworthy.
She said that like the BJP, the Congress is adept at using its governments to intimidate the opposition, as exemplified by her candidate switching sides. She also threatened to withdraw support to the Madhya Pradesh government. Nath has four votes more than what he needs to remain in power (the half-way mark for the MP assembly is 116). Three of those four votes come from Akhilesh Yadav and Mayawati’s legislators.
Besides this, four are independents who are reportedly already in talks with the BJP. What death wish possesses the Congress in putting at risk its largest Hindi heartland government for the sake of poaching one candidate from Mayawati? This act exposes the ugly inner party bickering between Kamal Nath and Scindia which has infected the running of the government and the handling of the general election.
Worse, it also demonstrates the Congress party’s absolutely chaotic decision-making process. Just who is in charge and calling the shots? With three rounds of polling still to go, including in critical eastern UP, this tells you everything you need to know about how the Congress treats opposition unity, so crucial to blocking the BJP.
Mayawati feels insulted and is convinced that Kamal Nath and Scindia are trying to break the BSP’s unit in Madhya Pradesh. Akhilesh Yadav is equally angry as Kamal Nath had reneged on a promise to him to make the sole Samajwadi Party legislator a minister. Yadav, who has struck an amazing working relationship with Mayawati, has assured her of withdrawing support to Nath, if need be, contending that “the Congress needs to be taught a lesson”.
The oldest Indian national party – the Congress — has been playing with the entire opposition on the wrong foot. The endemic infighting is affecting its electoral prospects in states such as Rajasthan where Chief Minister Ashok Gehlot is busy trying to ensure the election of his son Vaibhav Gehlot from Jodhpur, to the exclusion of the other 24 candidates.
Meanwhile, Deputy Chief Minister Sachin Pilot, who had opposed the candidature of Gehlot junior and is still sulking for not being given the state’s top job, is doing the bare minimum for the critical Lok Sabha elections. On the other hand, Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have been on a campaign overdrive ensuring that the unpopular ex Chief Minister Vasundhara Raje Scindia is kept under wraps.
Rahul Gandhi and his team seem confused about whether the goal in Election 2019 is to stop the Modi juggernaut at any cost, or help revive the Congress party. Gandhi can’t do both. And this conflict is leading to a half-hearted fight against the BJP which is also turning the rest of the opposition against the Congress.
Prime examples are Delhi where the Congress was happy to write off seven Lok Sabha seats rather than ally with the Aam Aadmi Party in Haryana and Delhi. A somewhat ludicrous alibi was given that the Congress party is in no sweet spot in Haryana where, again, huge infighting means it is hardly headed for a strong showing.
Without any Cost-benefit Analysis
In Uttar Pradesh, the Congress is playing spoiler to the mahagathbandhan without any cost-benefit analysis of how this could actually only help the BJP. In Bihar, Gandhi finally shared the stage with ally Tejashwi Yadav after three stages of voting had ended. Without Lalu Prasad Yadav’s healing touch, the alliance seems to have come under strain. In this fluid political scenario, the contours are changing every day ad it would be worth watching as to what really happens on May 23 and later.
Bharat Kumar Raut is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS)
