There is no mistaking the steady worsening of relations between India and Pakistan in recent months with both sides taking strong positions on various issues, especially Kashmir. Riled by Pakistan’s global outreach on Kashmir with Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif announcing plans to dispatch special envoys to 32 countries to proactively put forth their standpoint on Jammu and Kashmir, India has decided to keep Islamabad out of the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa) regional outreach scheduled in Goa on October 15-16.
Normally given to being laid -back in countering Pakistani propaganda in international forums, India has turned pro-active under the Narendra Modi government. Be it the impending G20 summit in China or the NAM summit in Venezuela and then the UN General Assembly session in September-end, India’s strong counter to Islamabad’s shrill rhetoric on Kashmir will be in evidence in big measure.
BARRING occasional lip service, India in the past had virtually given up its claim over Pak-occupied Kashmir and on Gilgit and Baltistan, part of which was ceded by Pakistan to China. Now, it is reaching out to the people of PoK and has even announced a Rs 2,000-crore plan for the refugees from that territory. Clearly, India under Modi means business and will not let Pakistan bully this country as it has done in the past, taking advantage of India’s pacifism.
The signal from the Modi government is loud and clear—that it would retaliate in kind if Pakistan persists in meddling in Kashmir by inciting Kashmiri youth to take up arms against the Indian state as it has been doing on a heightened scale after the gunning down of Burhan Wani who India calls a terrorist and Pakistan a martyr to the cause of Kashmir freedom.
The subtle warning that was held out in Modi’s Independence Day address this time was that India, which consistently kept an arm’s length from the secessionist movement in Balochistan would look at that Pakistani backyard with indulgence if Islamabad were to persist in its nefarious activities in Kashmir.
The infiltration from across the border which was a routine affair in Kashmir for years is now being met with stiff Indian measures and there is talk of impending hot pursuit of Pakistan-trained terrorists into their territory, though the possible consequences of it are still being examined.
Ever since Narendra Modi came to power in May 2014, the rules of the game between Pakistan and India appear to have been revised. The Indian army’s eagerness to forcibly curb cross-border movement through the use of firepower at the Line of Control is certainly something out of the ordinary for Islamabad accustomed as it was to weak Indian responses.
In the face of deteriorating ties, some airlines in India have sought governmental permission to avoid overflying Pakistani territory while flying to Gulf destinations. While partly this is dictated by security considerations it is also true that the cost to the airlines would go down, so there is a dual motivation for it. Whether this demand would be conceded is, however, a moot point because at present the airspace between Gujarat and the Gulf is used only by Indian security forces.
What has added fuel to the raging Indo-Pak fire is the BBC’s claims of links between India’s RAW and the Karachi-based MQM since the mid-1990s, close on the heels of Prime Minister Modi’s espousal of the Balochistan cause against Pakistani domination.
Whether the MQM-RAW tie-up is real or a figment of the BBC source’s imagination it is difficult to say but that Pakistani intransigence could lead to a retaliatory nexus is within the realm of speculation.
Modi and India have long suffered from Pakistan fanning the flames of secession in Kashmir and Indian retaliatory moves in Pakistani territory are directed at showing Pakistan that it can pay Islamabad back in the same coin. That anti-Pak groups in Balochistan are elated over the Indian move to lend support to the Baluchis against the violation of their human rights can hardly be missed in the surcharged atmosphere that prevails between the two countries today.
As a next step, India may well play host to leaders of anti-Pakistan groups in Balochistan and may even allow them to set up a government in exile if Islamabad does not lower the temperature on Jammu and Kashmir. The whole gameplan is to deter Pakistan from escalating the proxy war in Kashmir, showing the Pakistanis a mirror to what India can do to queer the pitch for them if they escalate matters in Kashmir. There can be little doubt that the biggest obstacle to peace in the sub-continent is the Pakistan Army which twists the arm of the civilian government in Pakistan as it wills.
Barring occasional lip service, India in the past had virtually given up its claim over Pak-occupied Kashmir and on Gilgit and Baltistan, part of which was ceded by Pakistan to China. Now, it is reaching out to the people of PoK and has even announced a Rs 2,000-crore plan for the refugees from that territory. Clearly, India under Modi means business and will not let Pakistan bully this country as it has done in the past, taking advantage of India’s pacifism.
As things stand, the US under the Obama dispensation is much better disposed towards India than past regimes when every effort was made to balance India with Pakistan. Washington now realises that the Islamabad-Beijing nexus needs to be countered in the overall strategic interest. With American troops having pulled out substantially from Afghanistan, the compulsions of propping up Pakistan have also disappeared.
Also, Indo-American economic interests are now closely linked while Pakistan is no match for India in terms of opportunities for trade, investment and wide-ranging cooperation.
How far the Chinese would come to Pakistan’s aid if the US tilt towards India becomes more pronounced is a moot point. While a lot would now depend on the attitude that Obama’s successor in the White House adopts, the enigmatic Chinese would also not like to give up on India which is a substantial market for goods from China.
