Predictions have a way of going horribly wrong. As I wrote this in last week’s column, I had crossed my fingers and had hoped that in fact, predictions would get it right. The polls and the pundits had confidently predicted that Hillary Clinton would win, even if it was a tight race. Not just observers, even the Clinton campaign was brimming with confidence. On Wednesday, her concession speech to her followers was delayed because the arrangements hadn’t been made. Her campaign team had not thought it even necessary to book a hall for this purpose — they had to scramble at the last minute. And yet, as soon as it became evident halfway through the contest, the Trump machine bulldozed Clinton even in states like Wisconsin, where Obama (and previous democrats) had won with ease.
The analyses have come in thick and fast, but most of all they say the same thing — America has changed and Clinton and her ilk, and this includes not just the people around her, but also the entire eco-system – the media, intellectuals and the Washington insiders. These voters not just supported Trump for being an ‘outsider’ but also hated Clinton and her family for being entitled and even corrupt. The many scandals – none proved and quite a few completely bogus – stuck to her image and affected her phenomenal good work, her commitment to women and children, her smarts. In fact, she was assumed to be too smart and America, many commentators have said, just isn’t ready to deal with that.
On the other hand, Trump’s message of divisiveness and hate, bigotry and misogyny was seen as representing a backlash against ‘political correctness’. His supporters simply did not care about his outlandish statements–they may have even supported his stand. The racism and sexism that had gone out from the public view was being aired once again and that too by a presidential candidate; it gave a licence for all the hidden hatred to come out. It is significant to note that Hillary Clinton lost the electoral college vote, but not the popular vote, indicating that a large number of Americans still backed her.
The irony is that Trump is no outsider. He is a second generation tycoon, a top businessman and a mover and shaker in the upper echelons of New York society. He is not all that successful either —many of his businesses have failed and he has declared bankruptcy three times. It emerged that he had not paid taxes, by exploiting a loophole, for almost two decades. Forget ‘family values’, he has married three times and has admitted to groping women without their consent. In sum, he is hardly the kind of person an honest, god-fearing American would like. But his followers did not care — they may have even admired him for his honestly and candidness. He appeared refreshingly ‘different’ from Clinton.
The world over, there is an urge to seek out those who are not part of the existing system. The Brexit campaign, run by the rabidly racist UKIP and the smooth establishment man Boris Johnson, ultimately succeeded because it tapped into the fears of the common Briton that a bunch of rich people and overpaid bankers were steering the country for their benefit. Clinton’s corporation connections kept coming up over and over again.
Also, there is an urge for ‘strong’ leaders – Modi, Erdogan (Turkey), Abe (Japan), Theresa May (Britain) and now Trump are all people who do not hesitate to take unpopular decisions, their admirers feel. Whether this is a sign of large parts of the world turning ‘right’ or just a backlash against elites is still debatable. Canada, for example, rejected the right winger Stephen Harper and brought in the liberal Justin Trudeau and rumours of the death of leftist politics in Latin America are greatly exaggerated, even if those movements have suffered setbacks. Even then, the right is on the ascendant in democratic countries and even if the majority does not back them, they manage to capture power.
Trump’s election has set off upheavals in the US. Anti-Trump protests have broken out, but the more pragmatic are hoping that the responsibilities of office will make him more sober. All eyes will now be on who he selects for top positions. If hardliners come in, it will become clear that he plans to carry out some of the things he said he would, including doing away with Obamacare. Whether he will also make a wall with Mexico or stop Muslims from migrating to the country remains to be seen — certainly his supporters will want him to do it.
What certainly changes is the tone and tenor of the United States, which has had an eight-year feel good run under Barack Obama. Even if reports of people shouting hate messages at blacks and browns are exaggerated, there is little doubt that there will be displays of bigotry that was perhaps lying latent for long. Certainly, as we too have seen, making outrageous statements in public will no longer seem strange and impolite — after all it can get you elected as the President of the world’s most powerful country.
