Shiv Sena’s member of Parliament Sanjay Raut could not have said it better that an alliance of opposition parties without the Congress was not possible. This would naturally be seen as a snub to Trinamool Congress (TMC) leader and West Bengal Chief Minister Mamata Banerjee who declared in Mumbai a few days ago that the United Progressive Alliance (UPA) led by the Congress was a non-entity.
She also made some caustic comments on Congress leader Rahul Gandhi, without naming him, that he was abroad most of the time. She met Shiv Sena and Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) leaders to explore the possibility of a non-Congress alliance against the BJP.
What emboldened her to think on those lines was the spectacular success she achieved in the West Bengal assembly elections and her ability to engineer a massive defection from the Congress legislature party in Meghalaya. She should have realised that in the municipal elections in Tripura, her party could not repeat the victory she achieved in her home state.
That a significant section of the population in Tripura consists of Bengalis should have helped her to turn the tables against the BJP. In distant Panaji, she could not organise defections of the kind she managed in Shillong. In other words, she has a long way to go before she can emerge as the alternative to Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
In the past, the Congress used to win successive elections because of the split in the anti-Congress votes. Even when the BJP won a massive majority in the Lok Sabha in 2019, it could muster the support of only one-third of the electorate. This means that the anti-BJP votes constituted roughly two-thirds of the votes polled. The only hope the BJP has in Uttar Pradesh, which goes to polls early next year, is the possibility of the votes splitting among the Samajwadi Party, the Bahujan Samajwadi Party and the Congress.
What is true about UP is, by and large, true about the whole country except those states like Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttarakhand, Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh, where the votes are usually split between the BJP and the Congress. In other words, opposition unity is central to any strategy to defeat the BJP.
The TMC leader is reportedly guided by Prashant Kishor, who has succeeded in creating an impression that he is a master election strategist. He has branded himself well and his services are available at a price. Nobody knows for whom he works as he has served almost all parties at one time or the other.
Banerjee has a point against Rahul Gandhi that he is active only spasmodically. He has not so far compromised on his stand against the Modi government. He has also been very vocal. However, to be effective, a leader should consistently raise issues of concern to the people and fight for them till they are solved. Gandhi should bear this in mind and expand the UPA to include more parties to provide an alternative to the BJP.
