All available evidence indicates that it will take some doing for normalcy to return at the Indo-China border following the Chinese perfidy in April-May. Which means uncertainty would prevail in domestic environment. This is not a happy situation, particularly at a time when we are distracted by the coronavirus pandemic. But the point to remember is that neither situation is of our making. Coronavirus had its origins in Wuhan, China. Again, the border peace was upset by none other than China. Our northern neighbour chose to behave like the rouge it is turning out to be in the international arena, what with Japan, Philippines, Thailand, Vietnam, Malaysia, etc., at the receiving end of its aggression on land or sea in recent years. India, too, became a victim at a time when China had recovered from the Wuhan pandemic while the rest of the world was still struggling to cope with it. Whether China crept inside the Indian side of the Line of Actual Control in eastern Ladakh a couple of kilometres or more is irrelevant. The fact is it breached multiple agreements since mid-90s to maintain the sanctity of the LAC till there is a mutual agreement on the nearly 4,000-km border between the two. The violent hand-to-hand fight between the troops of the two countries in the Galwan Valley on June 15, in which we lost 20 of our men, and China an unspecified number but probably much larger, has aggravated matters further. The two militaries now stand ready for combat in case of an escalation. Meanwhile, talks at diplomatic and military levels continue to break the impasse. That China is unwilling to see reason and undo the intrusion into the Indian side is clear from the decision of the Prime Minister to visit Ladakh last Friday. If there was any doubt left, it was removed from what he said while addressing the troops in Nimu, a short distance from Leh town. Without naming China once, he sought to send out a strong message: “…the age of expansionism is over…this is the era of development…expansionist powers have either been defeated or forced to retreat…expansionist tendencies are a danger to world peace…” There could be no clearer message to China. And China was quick to react. Its Foreign Ministry spokesperson in Beijing and the Ambassador in New Delhi found Modi’s comments ‘exaggerated and fabricated’, suggesting that neither side should do anything that could ‘complicate’ the situation. The Foreign Ministry statement had a sting in the tail, warning India against ‘a strategic miscalculation’.
The Chinese seem in no mood to restore the status quo ante. This leaves India with limited options. As of now, the strategy seems to be to amass troops on the border in readiness for any eventuality while negotiating simultaneously at diplomatic and military levels. This is an on-going process and might take weeks, if not months, for any mutually acceptable solution to emerge. Should China frustrate all attempts at a negotiated pull-back, India has the option to give it back in the same coin, annexing a part of territory on its Chinese side of the LAC at a place and time of its own choosing in the 4,000-km long border. This strategy seems the second best option to bring China to its senses. The third, and worst, option is to forcefully drive out China from the areas it occupied in recent weeks. This can certainly lead to a bigger conflagration which neither side wants. The onset of winter will add another dimension to any military engagement in the difficult terrain which favours us in some places and the Chinese at some other. If China is bigger economically and militarily, India is no pushover. Besides, the force of global opinion is unambiguously in India’s favour. Given that China has disputes with ten of its fourteen neighbours, whether on land or on sea, the rogue power will stand completely isolated worldwide. Presently, China’s relations are also strained with the US, the UK, Australia, Canada, Europe, etc. over trade and other issues, including the recent assault on Hong Kong’s autonomy. No nation can afford an all-out war in the nuclear age. Why would China jeopardise its status as the number two economic power in defence of a border misadventure with India. Heed Confucius and Buddha and return to the path of peace with your neighbours. History bears witness that great dictators drunk with power have fallen by the wayside while the righteous attain peace and progress. The onus to decide whether a rising China wants to play by the rulebook or turn completely rogue lies with the lifetime President Xi Jinping. Hope he has the requisite humility to make the right decision.
