Loss of three Hindi heart-land states—Rajasthan, MadhyaPradesh and Chhattisgarh—have sent shockwaves in BJP circles. In a panicreaction, the saffron party made significant concessions to its Bihar alliesJD(U) and LJP in seat sharing for the general elections. Swiftly moving tocounter the fall-out of ex-ally RLSP joining the UPA and the LJP leader ChiragPaswan making dissenting noises, the BJP has offered JD(U) 17 seats, LJP sixseats and an assured Rajya Sabha nomination to Ram Vilas Paswan. Despitecontesting 30 seats and winning 22 of them from Bihar in 2014, BJP is nowsettled for contesting just 17. Despite contesting 30 seats and winning 22 ofthem from Bihar in 2014, BJP is now settled for contesting just 17.
If BJP is aiming for 273 in 2019 on its own steam, then thisdeficit caused by Bihar arrangement will have to be bridged elsewhere. Facing astrong opposition coalition in Bihar, BJP has come to terms with strengtheningNDA and consolidating votes. Recall how JD(U) on re-entering NDA was not deemedworthy of a Union Cabinet birth and quietly put up with insult. Now Nitish Kumar’sappeal among Kurmi, Mahadalit and women voters, and Paswan’s long innings as aDalit leader are critical to arresting the decline of BJP votes from 2014 dueto the receding of the Modi wave.
Tejashwi Yadav’s display of real-politick — quickly co-optingUpendra Kushwaha and Jitin Ram Manjhi despite their recent NDA past—has forcedBJP’s hands. While Kushwaha and Manjhi do not have the stature or partyorganisation to replace Nitish in the Mahagatbandhan, the Keori and Musharcommunities they represent help RJD project a wider social coalition beyond itstraditional Yadav-Muslim base.
Moreover, RJD will benefit from the twin anti-incumbencyagainst the Modi/ Nitish governments at centre-state levels. Young Tejashwi mayalso be starting on a relatively clean state, less trained by the corruptionRabri-Lalu era.
The optics of propitiating Nitish and Paswan and appearingreasonable to allies will benefit BJP. Estranged partners like Uddhav Thackerayin Maharashtra and Om Prakash Rajbhar in UP can look forward to better terms.With Nitish and Paswan cool to Ram Mandir campaign and staunchly secular, theirpresence can get more regional parties into NDA if 2019 throws up a hungParliament. The Modi-Shah combine’s quick adjustment to the poll setback showthey can be amenable to coalitions. From the aggressive Congress-mukt Bharatslogan to the defensive art of coalition mismanagement, the BJP’s trajectory iscoming full circles.
Meanwhile all is not well with the move to forge Oppositionunity. Samajwadi Party chief Akhilesh Yadav has sent warning signal to theCongress which is keen to be part of Bihar type SP-BSP-RLD grand alliance inUttar Pradesh, expressing his unhappiness with the party for not making itslone MLA in Madhya Pradesh a minister, saying the turn of events has clearedthe way for the SP to chose its line.
He also said he would travel to Hyderabad to meet TelanganaChief Minister K Chandrashekhar Rao who is trying to forge “a non-Congress,non-BJP front”. A rattled Congress did not react to Yadav’s remark with topleaders saying they would prefer to wait and watch how the situation unfolds.Some suggested it is posturing and linked to the Congress’s performance in therecent assembly elections.
Views expressed are personal.
