When almost every exit poll in Maharashtra and Haryana predicted a cakewalk for the BJP, it was in line with the general pre-poll expectations that the assembly elections in the two states were not much of a contest. But that’s not how actual results have panned out. Even before the exit polls were announced, it was thought that the elections in Maharashtra and Haryana did not need the expertise of psephologists to predict the actual outcome: it was safely assumed that the BJP, ruling party in both states, was all set to retain power with consummate ease. The only question was what will be its majority. No wonder, the ruling party in both states was in a celebratory mood even before counting began on October 24.
Since exit polls are tricky exercises with lot of factors influencing voting behaviour in complex electoral battles, it is often difficult to get projections spot on. But when most projections gave an impression that the BJP would retain power with massive majority and counting of votes was a mere formality, there was little to doubt their data and methodologies because the Congress-led Opposition was perceived to be too weak to give a respectable fight to the BJP in both the states. Riddled with infighting in both Haryana and Maharashtra and the vacuum at its central leadership, the dissonance in the grand old party had created an impression that the Congress stood little chance of putting a good show. Thus the BJP was expected to deliver a rocking performance not because it has had a spectacular record in government, but because of the virtual absence of an Opposition.
The lower turnout in both Maharashtra and Haryana – 60.5 per cent and 65.6 per cent, respectively – as compared to 2014 was blamed on two factors: one, an uneven contest between the BJP-led alliance and the Opposition and two, lack of enthusiasm among voters because of BJP’s lacklustre performance in tackling issues that affect the common man directly: unemployment, rural distress and famers’ suicides, particularly in Maharashtra. Lower voter turnout was also blamed on a weak campaign by the Opposition, particularly the Congress, which seemed to have conceded defeat much before the polling day. Since the BJP’s aggressive campaign, led from the front by prime minister Narendra Modi and Home minister-cum-party chief Amit Shah, was woven around the issues of national security, NRC and Article 370, it was assumed that the outcome of the Lok Sabha polls would be replicated in the assembly elections.
But the results in Maharashtra and Haryana have proved that state elections are quite different from a general election. The weaknesses of the BJP-led NDA government and its failure to tackle ground issues were overlooked in the Lok Sabha polls because of the dominant Modi factor. Probably the BJP hoped that the same story would repeat itself in assembly elections as well, though the limitations of the Modi factor were evident in Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh in December 2018. The message that came from the elections in three heartland states was that issues and personalities have to be different in state and national elections. But this message was probably ignored by psephologists and political pundits while predicting Maharashtra and Haryana elections because of the decisive nature of victory that the BJP scored in the Lok Sabha polls.
What the Maharashtra and Haryana elections have proved is that politics cannot be unipolar and real democracy is not one-party rule. This fact was amply proved in the heartland state elections and has been reinforced once again. This means people are always looking for an alternative. Till about two years ago, the Opposition was made almost irrelevant by Modi. Gujarat made it relevant in December 2017. A year later, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh turned the spotlight on the Opposition once again. Modi made the Opposition irrelevant once more in May 2019. Maharashtra and Haryana have resurrected the Opposition from the ignominy of irrelevance once again.
Though the BJP-Sena alliance has retained power in Maharashtra, it has every reason to feel less enthused and more disappointed for having returned to power with a reduced majority. The big loser in Maharashtra is the BJP which went solo in 2014 and won 122 seats against 63 of Shiv Sena, 42 of the Congress and 41 of the NCP. In 2019, the combined tally of the BJP-Sena alliance is 162 seats, which is 23 seats less than their 2014 combined tally, as BJP has lost more seats than the Sena. On the other hand, the big winner in Maharashtra is Sharad Pawar’s NCP which, despite losing many of its key leaders because of defections, has done well with 54 seats. Contrary to the expectations, the Congress also hasn’t done that bad, given its lacklustre campaign and defection of some of its leaders. Haryana is a real shocker for the BJP which has not only lost its slender majority it won in 2014 but ended quite poor against expectations of a sweep with 70-plus seats.
So, what are the implications of these elections for the BJP and the Opposition? Leave aside the hard bargains and behind-the-scenes games that will be played before government formation in Maharashtra and Haryana, the elections have opened the space for the Opposition for its revival after the debacle in the general elections. The lesson for the Congress is that it has to set its house in order and resolve the leadership issue. Another important lesson for the Congress is that it has to take the same route that the BJP traversed on its way to power since the late 80s: that is, strike key alliances wherever possible to counter the BJP. The time for self-introspection and pontification is over. Given that it is still regarded as the only national opposition for the BJP, it has to get aggressive in its strategy to corner the BJP on real issues.
What the Maharashtra and Haryana elections have also proved is that the BJP is not invincible and there is lot of hope for the Opposition. Given sustained economic slowdown, agrarian distress, rising unemployment and falling living standards of average Indians, the socio-economic conditions are ripe for the Opposition to step in. Lack of a popular face in the Opposition is currently its major worry. But that’s the problem the Opposition has to find solution to for its revival.
The writer is an independent Mumbai-based senior journalist.
