The Narendra Modi government’s stated aim of securing more than 370 seats for the BJP and 400-plus seats for the NDA in the upcoming general election has given an added momentum to its southern push, as it has neared saturation point in the northern belt. It is determined to open its account in Kerala and make inroads in Tamil Nadu. In this context it is also striking new alliances in the south to enlarge the NDA family. The five states south of the Vindhyas — Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka, Tamil Nadu and Kerala — and the Union territory of Puducherry together contribute 130 Lok Sabha seats. Traditionally, the Congress and regional parties have held sway in these states. In Kerala, the Left Democratic Front led by the CPI-M and the United Democratic Front led by the Congress have alternated in the power stakes. Barring Karnataka and Andhra Pradesh, the BJP has failed to achieve electoral success in any of the southern states where it has largely been perceived as a north Indian party that cannot relate to the southern ethos. It is this perception that the saffron party is determined to change. Ahead of the consecration ceremony of the Ram temple in Ayodhya, Prime Minister Narendra Modi went from temple to temple in Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana as part of the 11-day rituals preceding the event. It was clearly aimed at wooing the electorate in these states.
The saffron party secured 26 of the 28 seats in Karnataka in the 2019 Lok Sabha election but was subsequently defeated by the Congress in the 2023 Assembly election. However, Karnataka is one state where the electorate votes differently for parliamentary and state polls and the BJP is banking on that. The saffron party is well entrenched in coastal Karnataka where the RSS has been hard at work on its Hindutva laboratory for several years now. Not to take any chances it has also tied up with HD Deve Gowda’s Janata Dal Secular in its bid to retain its vote and seat share in the state. Fairly confident of its performance in Karnataka, the BJP is now focusing on Kerala and Tamil Nadu where it has so far failed to achieve any success. Modi’s frequent trips to these two states and the slew of project announcements signal the saffron party’s intent. In Kerala, it has managed to rope in the offspring of two former Congress chief ministers, A K Antony and K Karunakaran, Anil Antony and Padmaja Venugopal respectively. They have both been given tickets to contest the Lok Sabha elections. Even if they fail to win, the optics surrounding their induction in the BJP has succeeded in highlighting problems in the Congress. Two Union ministers, Rajeev Chandrashekhar and V Muralidharan, are also being fielded, the former against the high-profile Shashi Tharoor in Thiruvananthapuram. The BJP is almost certain to open its account in Kerala, perhaps in Thrissur where actor Suresh Gopi is in the fray.
In neighbouring Tamil Nadu, the BJP faces a formidable rival in the DMK-led alliance that includes the Congress and the Left. With the AIADMK having severed ties with the saffron party, it is now trying to stitch up alliances with O Paneerselvam and the Dhinakaran faction of the AIADMK. The BJP in Tamil Nadu is led by the young, dynamic former IPS officer K Annamalai who has created quite a buzz. It remains to be seen whether his popularity will translate into votes. The Sanatana Dharma controversy involving Udayanidhi Stalin, son of Chief Minister M K Stalin, has created no resonance in the state even if it has caused problems to other members of the I.N.D.I.A bloc in northern India. In Andhra Pradesh, the pact with Chandrababu Naidu’s Telugu Desam Party and actor Pawan Kalyan’s Jana Sena has boosted the NDA’s chances in the state. Jagan Reddy’s YSRCP, while not joining the NDA umbrella, has never gone against the Central government. So it is win win for the BJP there. The saffron party cannot be written off in Telangana either, where the Congress routed the BRS in the Assembly election. The southern states, which are economically more prosperous than their northern and eastern counterparts, have achieved remarkable progress in population stability as well. This will adversely impact them during the process of delimitation reducing the number of seats in the southern states. Till then, the BJP is going all out to woo these states and debunk the narrative of a North-South divide. In the process it hopes to reach its 370+ target.
