The alliance talks between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Biju Janata Dal falling through, ostensibly over seat-sharing, was inevitable as the two parties have been rivals in Odisha for a long time ever since the Congress lost its primacy in the state. That the cadres were unhappy with the alliance that the two parties’ leaders were keen to forge was apparent. Neither the BJP nor the BJD workers wanted to give space to the other in the forthcoming high stakes Lok Sabha and State Assembly elections. They have been natural rivals much in the way that the Congress and Left are in Kerala despite being part of the I.N.D.I.A bloc. The BJD has been in power in Odisha since 2000 and Naveen Patnaik is set to become the longest serving chief minister if he wins another term in office this year. The BJP, meanwhile, has been expanding its footprint in the state winning eight Lok Sabha seats in 2019. As per recent surveys it is likely to enhance its tally in 2024. Odisha is seeing a similar pattern as West Bengal where the Congress and Left have been virtually decimated and ceded the Opposition space to the BJP. Leaders such as Dharmendra Pradhan and former bureaucrat Aparajita Sarangi are keen to establish BJP dominance in Odisha and were lukewarm at best to the tie-up talks between the two parties initiated after the bonhomie displayed at the recent meeting between Naveen Patnaik and Prime Minister Narendra Modi. Another factor is the induction of trusted Patnaik aide and former bureaucrat VK Pandian in the BJD. He is being seen as the successor to the CM but the fact that he is not a son of the soil is a trigger for parochial sentiments in both parties.
If the alliance had worked out, in all probability it would have swept both the Lok Sabha and Assembly polls but it would have left in its wake a multitude of disgruntled party workers vying for election tickets. Many may have explored other options giving a slight advantage to the Congress and other parties. The primary objective of the tie-up was to expand the NDA and make the PM’s wish of ‘400 paar’ come true but the BJD has anyway been supporting the ruling dispensation at the Centre on all issues, easing the passage of contentious Bills in Parliament. Whether the BJP will succeed in its mission for dominance in Odisha remains to be seen. Already senior BJD MP Bhartruhari Mahtab has quit, citing differences with the party leadership. That he will gravitate to the BJP is a distinct possibility. The state, which will go to the polls in May, is set to witness an interesting contest.
