It is well known that the Communist Party of India (Marxist) and Mamata Banerjee are political rivals, even sworn enemies in some ways. Banerjee was a thorn in the CPM’s side for years and not many have forgotten that she was at the receiving end of violence during the CPM’s rule. She eventually defeated them and misses no opportunity to attack them publicly.
So when she reached out to them to join hands to put up a joint political front against the BJP after the government’s demonetisation drive, it must have come as a shock not just to her own troops but also the CPM. Mamata’s appeal to fight for a ‘greater cause’ did not get much of a response from the communists, but it was a shrewd tactical move. It firmly positioned her as a flag bearer for the interests of the poor, something that is the CPM’s political bread and butter. The CPM remained cold, even made a dig about how the PM and the CM were “hand in glove when it comes to marginalising the Opposition”, thus shutting the door to any cooperation, even if on one issue.
Even if she did not get much traction from the CPM, other parties, including, improbably, the Shiv Sena agreed to join up with her. The Shiv Sena has its own reasons of course — it is now firmly focused on the municipal corporation elections in Mumbai and will do everything to show up its rival the BJP. But Uddhav Thackeray is also upset at the BJP’s open wooing of Sharad Pawar. Both Pawar and Narendra Modi have shared a platform in the past and came together once again; the irony that this happened after the central government declared its intention to fight black money has not been missed. Thackeray has not forgotten how the BJP, after the elections in October 2014, had been propped up by the Nationalist Congress Party and has always suspected that the two are quite close. Certainly, Modi and Pawar share a good rapport, notwithstanding the attacks by candidate Modi on the NCP, when he called it a Naturally Corrupt Party.
The Sena is keen to fight the municipal elections on its own steam but is not sure that it will win, so it may perforce have to go with the BJP. But that’s in the future. Meanwhile it does not give up any opportunity to hit out at its ally and the turmoil over the demonetisation, which has affected millions of middle class and poor people is a made for occasion. It has gladly signed up with Mamata. For the Shiv Sena it hardly matters that this will give Mamata a higher profile; they are not competitors in any sense of the term.
The other opposition parties have not been able to come out with guns blazing to the same extent as Mamata Bannerjee, who is at her best when it comes to fighting. The Congress is issuing weak statements and while Rahul Gandhi’s photo-op in a queue got the point across, it won’t get the masses worked up. Mayawati issued some strong statements, but she is confined to UP and the speculation that her war chest of old notes has been badly hit will bog her down.
But then there is Arvind Kejriwal, who is always ready to rush in where others fear to tread. He has alleged that the entire demonetisation exercise has been undertaken to help the PM’s cronies and he hasn’t hesitated to name them. Not just that– his volunteers have been offering water to those in the queues, which is one of those things people tend to remember.
Now Kejriwal has opened another front. He has alleged – on the floor of the house – that an industrial house had given money to then Gujarat CM who is now the PM. Once such a statement is made in an assembly, it becomes part of the public record and is bound by privilege. With this, he has ensured headlines and tried to attack Narendra Modi on the one thing that is close to the prime minister’s heart– corruption.
It is not as if all opposition parties have been critical of the move to demonetise. Both Naveen Patnaik, not particularly inimical to the BJP and Nitish Kumar, who defeated the BJP in the last Bihar elections, have come out in support. This is significant, because it could indicate the shape of political developments to come.
For the moment the government, despite all the chaos and the criticism, is holding on and pushing through the notion that this was important for the country as a whole. But if the problems of the poorest of the poor and even the middle class do not get resolved quickly, there will be a price to pay. Experts have said that it will take at least four to five months for the new notes to get into the system and for things to stabilise. Moreover, the long term effects on the economy – contraction in growth and GDP, lost business and even the severe knock to the informal economy – could be serious. In which case, the patient masses could become very restless indeed. This will play out in the next few elections that are due.
