Within hours, after you receive a copy of this newspaper, the last phase of voting for Lok Sabha in Maharashtra would be off the block. With this, the entire South India, on this shore of the Narmada, would have completed the process of voting. The rest of the three phases would be in northern parts of the country. After that, all eyes would be set on May 23, when counting for all seats would take place in the respective constituencies.
Even as many of us have a keen interest in developments in the Mumbai-Thane belt, the nation is more interested in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar and West Bengal, the states which still have three phases to go. Among these, Varanasi constituency has a special significance as it returned the most powerful politician in this part of the world, Prime Minister Narendra Modi of the Bharatiya Janata Party.
Each journalist was eagerly awaiting the outcome of party nominations from Varanasi as the buzz was that Congress debutant Priyanka Gandhi-Vadra would take on Modi. However, that is not happening. Finally, it was a no-show against Modi as far as the media fraternity is concerned.
Dining Table Parleys?
Considering that the apex decision-maker in the party is her elder brother, Congress President Rahul Gandhi, and the veto lies with mother Sonia Gandhi, a dinner table chat – or a series of them – was presumably how the matter was decided. But the nudge-nudge-wink-wink atmospherics, which were scaled up helpfully by Rahul’s “suspense is good” comment, turned into a PR mess with Ajay Rai being fielded once again as the Congress candidate from Varanasi.
Rai was the second runners-up against Modi in 2014 and with his nomination, the Congress has conceded a walkover to Modi. Not just Rai, even Arvind Kejriwal was just an also-ran in the triangular contest last time. The decision to field Rai in place of Priyanka came two hours before Modi’s mammoth roadshow in Varanasi. It was essentially a prelude to the victory procession. Such was the embarrassment that most Congress leaders wanted to duck the question about why Priyanka had been struck off the list.
The choice was clear. She could have ensured that her political career started off with a big bang against the most powerful leader in the country. Even a defeat would have ensured that she would no longer be seen as a political intern and would have joined the league of gritty “netas” while earning the stripes of an aggressive leader who is not shy of a tough fight.
If she had brought down Modi’s victory margin, she would have lived up to her description as the Congress’s “Brahmastra” (ultimate weapon), bestowed on her by the adoring party. However, the weapon never left the docking area.
So what made Priyanka back out?
There are two versions put out by Congress leaders who spoke to a select few in the media. A very senior leader privy to the decision making said she was never seriously in the race and her candidature against Modi was not discussed at the highest levels.
It started as a rumour or demand from enthusiastic workers and the quotes from the siblings were just to keep up the mind game and confuse the BJP. But given that the buzz about a Modi vs Priyanka battle was ignited by her and kept alive by “Congress insiders” and both Rahul and she spoke on record, the hypotheses makes little sense.
Another leader said that while Priyanka was keen to contest, Rahul and Sonia did not want her to start her political career with a defeat. In-house surveys showed that Modi was impregnable in Varanasi and Priyanka concurred with her family’s decision.
In the eventuality of Rahul Gandhi winning both Amethi and Wayanad, she will contest the Amethi by-election whenever it is held, said a senior leader. But are real leaders to be shielded and sheltered? Winning and losing is the lot of mass leaders. Ask this question and the Congress has no answers.
As per the Uttar Pradesh Mahagathbandhan understanding, Varanasi was a Samajwadi party seat and Akhilesh Yadav would have happily supported Priyanka as the joint opposition candidate and withdrawn his own lightweight nominee.
The family veto over a failed bid for Varanasi now has the leaders saying that Priyanka will campaign extensively in 18 seats where the Congress sees itself as having a real shot at winning. Considering that Modi is the BJP’s main campaigner even tying him down to Varanasi will be projected as a Priyanka victory.
Another spin, that the Congress wants to help the Mahagathbandhan in UP by ensuring that Priyanka does not contest, is fiction. The best way to help the alliance would have been not to contest any seat, except the two Gandhi constituencies of Amethi and Rae Bareli, and turn it into a BJP vs a united opposition fight.
Instead, the Congress will now cut the Maha-Gathbandhan’s votes. Data shows the BJP has always benefited in a triangular contest. “Priyanka quietly chickened out of the contest,’’ blogged Arun Jaitley gleefully. Watch the BJP cash in on this Congress self-goal in the four remaining rounds of voting.
Especially in the final UP rounds, which could well decide who wins in 2019. It has now become customary for the Congress party to settle for the worst in any given situation. The most recent example is that of a dutiful daughter yielding to her family decision.
In Mumbai Metropolitan Region
If this is enough about the prestigious seat of Varanasi, it would be also worth discussing the six seats in Mumbai and the five more in the Mumbai metropolitan regions. All these seats had gone to the BJP in 2014. However, going by latest opinion polls, it seems difficult for the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance to replicate the 2014 performance, though the NDA seems to have retained its upper hand in the urbs prima.
It would therefore be worth watching whether the BJP manages to retain the seats that it won in 2014, or the honour goes to the Shiv Sena.
Bharat Kumar Raut is a political analyst and former Member of Parliament (RS)
