Earlier this year, Chinese president Xi Jinping was riding high horses, having been catapulted by the Communist Party of China to cult status, declared irreplaceable for his lifetime. As architect of the One Belt One Road (OBOR) initiative, he was seen as poised to dominate the world with his subtle brand of neo-colonialism.
Today, he appears somewhat diminished with a number of Asian countries — including Malaysia, Myanmar, Pakistan and Sri Lanka — discreetly questioning the subtle moves to trap them in a debt quagmire. With the Donald Trump administration in the US slapping China with a wide range of import duties, the Chinese economy is no longer a dream economy. It looks somewhat vulnerable though it is trying hard to assert its authority.
Among the feathers in its cap were the manner in which it had virtually subjugated the Maldivian regime of Abdulla Yameen, controlling vital waterways to the Indian Ocean and the besieged regime of Nawaz Sharif in Pakistan with the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) for which a lion’s share of the cost has had to be borne by the Pakistanis who are rapidly slipping into heavy debt.
Today, Yameen is desperately trying to cling on to power after being trounced in a presidential election while in Islamabad, Imran Khan, who is sceptical about Pakistan’s unquestioning loyalty to Beijing in the wake of an impending debt trap is at the helm.
By default, India could well be a gainer, though in Pakistan it is still the army which is highly inimical to Indian interests that calls the shots while Imran plays to its tunes.
Yameen’s five years in power was a tumultuous time as he jailed political opponents and judges, controlled the press and assiduously wooed China while amassing unsustainable levels of foreign debt. But, after accepting the verdict of the people which was against him, he is being encouraged to cock a snook at his opponents who are anti-West and arguably pro-India to an extent.
Yameen’s bid to hang on to power at China’s instigation has a formidable power to reckon with — the US — which has warned him that it would not take his attempt to subvert the electoral mandate lying down. Much as Europe may be opposed to Trumpian domination, it cannot but go along with his new-found muscle-flexing on Maldives which is a classic case of Chinese hegemonism.
Now that Trump is on a spree to rein in China, it cannot ignore Beijing’s propensity to establish exclusive sea lanes to control world trade through various means including the Pakistani end. The Pakistanis are realising increasingly that they are mere pawns in the Chinese game and are being made to pay through their nose for the rapid Chinese moves at geo-strategic advantage. With the International Monetary Fund (IMF) making a bailout for Pakistan conditional on complete transparency in Islamabad’s deals with Beijing, the Pakis are left with little option but to spill the beans on the sinister ways in which China is out to control Pakistan.
The irrepressible Malaysian newly-elected Prime Minister Mahathir Mohamad announced recently that he was cancelling two megaprojects because of debt fears. He told Prime Minister Li Keqiang in the Great Hall of the People on a recent visit: “We do not want a situation where there is a new version of colonialism.”
Mahathir is no flash in the pan politician. In his earlier avatar as prime minister in the 1980s, he had shown what a no-nonsense man he was in his conduct of international relations. The Chinese look upon him with a degree of awe that they view few others with.
For India, not succumbing to Chinese pressure to participate in the OBOR initiative has been something of a godsend. The assertion of Indian identity vis-a-vis the deal with Russia on S-400 air surveillance systems has also established India as a country that cannot be taken for granted.
The Indian attitude on Chinese assertiveness in Maldives — swallowing Yameen’s highhandedness while encouraging anti-Yameen forces in that country — has so far paid off. If the new regime finally assumes power in Maldives after November 17 when it is scheduled to, India would hopefully be able to control Chinese hegemonism in Maldives and to restore some of its hitherto-held power.
But Maldives is still an imponderable, with the Chinese unwilling to give up on the strategic advantage that they have gained. How acutely the Americans view the loss of maritime advantage and how keen they are to whittle down Chinese hegemony is a moot point. Xi Jinping indeed has much at stake. His party has invested hugely in him and the Chinese can be ruthless when they see ambitious plans going down the drain. The OBOR initiative is a kingpin in his quest for establishing China as a superpower parallel to the US in the world.
The manner in which first Sri Lanka and Myanmar and now Pakistan and Maldives through the ballot box have indirectly questioned the China connection bodes ill for Beijing. Yet, it is too early to think that the Chinese have played all their cards. In this game of high stakes there are more moves and counter-moves to come.
Kamlendra Kanwar is a political commentator and columnist. He has authored four books.
