There is cause for the Narendra Modi government to sit back with a level of satisfaction over the budget this time around. Even though it is all the way an election budget with several giveaways and no takeaways, it is calculatedly pragmatic. The Opposition is, indeed, hard put to find strands on which it can take on the government convincingly. One legitimate criticism is that it is not a budget that would fuel capital formation but then in these times of crass populism it could well have been worse. There is no nationwide waiver of farm loans at a projected cost of Rs1.5 lakh crore that was thought of but wisely turned down.
Instead, the government has settled for direct transfer into bank accounts of farmers owning up to two hectares of land with a relatively modest projected expenditure of Rs75,000 crore. The salaried class were increasingly aggrieved over a persistent raw deal but have been compensated this time with a hike in not having to pay income tax on incomes up to Rs5 lakh per annum. The unorganised sector which was in a shambles after demonetisation has got some succour.
It would be naive to deny that the dole-outs were drawn up with an eye on the impending general election. The Modi government has been losing ground for quite a while, the clearest evidence of which came with the humiliating defeat of the BJP in three states held by it, and it would have been foolhardy to not fall back on expediency during times when all parties are ruled by opportunism.
Just as the extension of the benefit of reservations in jobs to the poor among the forward castes was designed to pander to a vote bank, the budget giveaways are not dictated by non-electoral considerations. But if this government is able to contain the fiscal deficit at 3.4 per cent or thereabout, as it has projected, it would be an achievement.
It is true that public expectations have risen to unrealistic proportions but there is no denying that certain sectors like agriculture and small scale industry needed props to save them from plunging into deeper and deeper morass. That there is no compromise with investment in defence is also a happy sign.
Whether all this will boost the Modi government’s prospects adequately in the weeks ahead only time will tell. But things could well be looking up for the central government at a time when a plethora of parties is desperate to come to power on the strength of not their projected policies and programmes but on the basis of a negative vote.
While the NDA led by the BJP needs to put a stop to losing electoral allies, the BJP’s parleys with the Telangana Rashtriya Samithi (TRS) and Jagan Mohan Reddy’s YSR Congress for post-poll alliances must yield results. The recent threat from the Akali Dal to leave the NDA must be addressed forthwith.
Its charge that the RSS is seeking to meddle with the religious affairs of the Akalis needs to be addressed. The Shiv Sena’s blow hot blow cold attitude to the alliance with the BJP cannot be allowed to linger indefinitely and must be addressed with finality. The BJP will also need to find a way to deal with the RSS whose meddling with politics needs to be curbed.
It is just as well that the BJP has wisely put controversial parliamentary bills in abeyance as recent reports have indicated. That the Opposition led by the Congress was hell bent on sabotaging the bill outlawing triple talaq was clear in the last two sessions. It is well on the cards that the NDA would lose in a vote in the Rajya Sabha, outnumbered as it is by the Opposition.
Rather than face embarrassment on the eve of election, it is prudent to defer the move until a more opportune time. The same is true of the citizenship amendment bill which has led to the Asom Gana Parishad walking out of the NDA and for considerable opposition to build up in the northeast against the BJP move. All in all, the upcoming electoral battle brooks no complacency.
