Impatience is another name for the Aam Aadmi Party, or rather for its leader Arvind Kejriwal. For him, politics is two-minute noodles. If cooking takes more than two minutes, he gets very restless, and does not know how to deal with it. He loses sleep and starts tweeting in the dead of night or messaging his party colleagues. It is at this moment that he is weak, and if not advised well or if he’s exploited by power-hungry leaders around him, he can make the stupidest move to counter his opponent and get trapped in some unseen crisis. His belligerence on the issue of the Delhi ordinance is one such example. AAP might rejoice that it has forced the Congress to support AAP on this issue but the fact is that he has exposed himself on an issue in which the Congress has no other option but to support AAP.
A party which is trying to cobble together all the parties which are opposed to the BJP and the Modi brand of statecraft, in no way, would have taken a different position. But then AAP being AAP, resorted to brinkmanship, issued threats that it would boycott the opposition conclave if the Congress did not offer support.
Kejriwal these days is wrongly advised most of the time. It was wrong for his party to boycott the Opposition leaders’ collective press conference in Patna. It was the first Opposition leaders’ meet after several months of uncertainties. This was the meeting which was to give a message to the entire nation that the Opposition is honestly trying to come together to stitch a strong rainbow coalition to counter the might of the BJP and its divisive politics. Till that date, talks were on, but no concrete shape was emerging. There was no certainty that Opposition parties would come together; there were serious apprehensions in many quarters.
It was widely speculated that many of these ‘power hungry’ politicians who, in order to save their power, or to remain relevant in Indian politics, may come on a platform to oppose the BJP or may switch sides to the BJP. They were branded as ‘corrupt’ and ‘opportunist’ leaders, bereft of any vision or idea for the country, with no imagination to make India great, but were mostly driven by their own passion to save their family run parties and businesses; corruption was the only glue keeping them under one umbrella. This narrative was cleverly woven by the BJP and very ably spread by its supporters in mainline media. If AAP had any sense of history, then it would not have made any effort that sent a wrong signal to the larger audience. It fed into the image of the opposition as a club of squabbling leaders against the cohesive BJP, in the collective imagination of the people.
Of course, AAP leaving Patna has not been received well by its friends in the Opposition camp. Many of them, off the record, have shown annoyance. In their opinion, once AAP had made an appeal and attended the meeting, it should have waited for some more time for the Congress’s official response. It has emerged that behind the curtains, leaders of both the parties have been meeting and talking; senior members of the Congress had explained to AAP leaders its problem about serious resistance coming from the local units in Delhi and Punjab. But the Congress leadership had given enough hints that sooner or later, it would oppose the Delhi ordinance if brought in the Rajya Sabha by the Modi Government. Obviously, Kejriwal did not believe what was conveyed to him.
I was not surprised when after the Patna meet AAP issued another threat that it would not attend the Bengaluru conclave if the Congress did not come on board. This again provided fodder to the BJP and its friends to belittle and condemn the Opposition’s effort to come together.
For the Congress it was not an easy decision to make as it is pitted against AAP in three states. In Delhi, the Congress lost its ground to AAP and is fighting for its existence. In Punjab AAP is its main opposition, Akali Dal and the BJP are on the margins. Akali and the BJP are talking to each other to revive their old friendship. Both need each other to survive in the state. The Akali Dal has lost two consecutive elections and today it is a much-discredited party. The patriarch of Akali Dal and legendary leader Prakash Singh Badal is no more and his son Sukhbir Singh Badal is not a popular leader. If the Akali Dal has to be relevant in Punjab politics and carry forward its great legacy from the pre-Independence era, then it has to win a few seats in the 2024 elections.
The BJP is also trying to re-invent itself in the state. It has appointed Congress import Sunil Jakhar as the state BJP president. He is popular amongst both Hindu and Sikh communities, but after joining the BJP how much he will help the BJP gain, has to be seen. Since the BJP is talking to the Akali Dal it is apparent that the BJP is not confident of winning seats alone. In this context, both Akali Dal and BJP would go to any extent to paint the Congress as AAP’s B team in the state rather than being the main Opposition. In this game, AAP, and the Congress both have to be very careful and if they cosy up beyond a point then both might lose and create a situation in which the Akali Dal can bounce back, and if that happens then both will lose in the long run.
Any possible alliance between the Congress and AAP can be bad news for the BJP in Delhi. AAP has failed to win a single seat in the national capital in the last two parliamentary elections despite its overwhelming presence in the state assembly. The BJP won all the seats in 2014 and 2019. In 2014 AAP was second to BJP on all the seats with 33% votes, and the Congress with 15% was a distant third but in 2019, AAP lost the second spot to the Congress which got 23% votes vis a vis AAP’s 18%. In 2019 AAP wanted to have an alliance with the Congress. Talks failed as AAP was not willing to concede more than two seats out of seven. The Congress wanted three. Finally, both lost badly.
Now AAP can claim to be in a better position as it has won the Delhi municipal elections too. But the Congress can argue that the party is in revival mode in the state after Rahul’s successful Bharat Jodo Yatra. The Congress can also claim that in national politics, the Congress is seen to be the main challenger to the BJP and in the general elections the Congress will be a preferred choice over AAP. It can cite the 2019 results as proof. The minority votes are definitely inclined towards the Congress for two reasons. One due to Rahul’s Yatra the Congress is seen to be fighting for minority rights and secularism. Two, AAP has been circumspect on the Muslim issue. AAP avoided supporting the Shaheen Bagh agitation, and during the Northeast Delhi riots in which 53 people died, majority of them were Muslims, it was nowhere seen to be protecting and fighting for them despite being in the government in Delhi.
In Gujarat, AAP is an unknown commodity in the parliamentary elections. In the last assembly elections, due to AAP’s presence, the BJP won by a record margin. AAP gained at the expense of the Congress. The Congress despite losing consistently to the BJP has been maintaining a respectable 37% and more vote share but because of AAP, the Congress vote share came down drastically to 27%, a huge loss of 14% votes. Even if both the parties were to join hands to fight the BJP, I am not sure it will make much of a dent to the BJP.
There is no denying the fact that AAP is facing the wrath of the central government in Delhi. Every effort is being made to discredit AAP and there is a perception that the Modi government is out to destabilise the AAP government through central agencies and the LG. But Kejriwal is also handicapped by his own personality. He is not known to be a team player. He is good when he plays solo. He does not like to be constrained by any restraints. His temperament is not suitable for alliance politics. And so, one can’t be sure how long he will play the Opposition unity game. Nonetheless, it is a welcome sign that finally he has agreed to be in Bengaluru. Meanwhile, let’s not forget that patience is not his virtue.
The writer is Editor, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B
