After Pulwama, the Prime Minister gave the armed forces free hand to respond to the terror attack by a suicide-bomber who killed more than forty CRPF men. The ensuing nation-wide outrage and a demand for revenge for some days united the nation. In certain places, hotheads attacked or harassed Kashmiri tradesmen and students, but not grievously. Rather, it was the fear of attacks that led Kashmiris to stay under the radar or to go home till the return of normalcy.
Meanwhile, the administration took certain steps which put the heat on the separatists. Their security was withdrawn, though it served to help keep tabs on them. More troops were rushed to Kashmir. It caused concern in the Valley. Speculation over the deletion of Article 35A, which bars a non-Kashmiri to own property in Kashmir, added to tension. On the face of it, it is meant to preserve the Kashmiri culture.
But seen from close, it militates against gender equality and perpetuates separation from the mainstream. A married daughter of Kashmiri parents, particularly if they have only one child, is denied the ownership of her share in the landed property if she marries a non-Kashmiri. But having feasted on such separatist clauses, including the more harmful Article 370, separatists have come to have a vested interests in retaining them permanently.
However, the State Governor Satya Pal Malik soon tried to calm taut nerves, instead of providing yet one more provocation to create mischief. Even about the induction of 10,000 additional troops, officials in Srinagar clarified that this was done to oversee the coming parliamentary poll. Whether the Assembly poll will be held simultaneously is not clear though the National Conference leader Omar Abdullah has demanded it.
Meanwhile, it is now certain that a vague intelligence was given about an attack on the CRPF convoy which was to move from Jammu to Kashmir. It being of a general nature, no concrete steps were taken. Failure proved fatal. While on intelligence, it is true that human sources for intelligence gathering on ground have become thin. It is now become difficult to penetrate the veil of secrecy jihadis work under for fear of violent reprisals.
Terrorists have filmed the barbaric execution of men and women suspected to be informers and released the film on the social media. Meanwhile, the Centre seems to be toning down the temperature against Pakistan in order not to fritter away the goodwill and sympathy Pulwama has evoked in major world capitals.
More than forty nations, including the US, France, Russia, Canada, etc, have condemned the terror attack, and, later the United Nations Security Council Security Council, including, most notably, China, issued a strong statement and, for the very first time, naming Jaish-e-Mohammed. It was as a morale booster for India and a clear put-down for Pakistan.
Following this, Pakistan took over control of JeM campus and put under house arrest its top leaders. It is another matter that Pakistan as before must be pulling wool over the eyes of the world. But to the extent it was forced to take these decisions indicated that the international heat had got to it.
Recourse to coercive diplomacy by India has forced Pakistan on the back foot. Given its near-bankrupt treasury, the Financial Action Task Force in Paris has warned Pakistan that should it persist in patronising jihadi outfits, chances of it being downgraded from the grey list to be outright black list will increase enormously. Should that happen, all avenues of financial assistance from the global institutions will be cut off outright.
Pakistan barely survives on alms from Saudi Arabia and China. Black-listing by the global financial institutions would virtually choke it off financially. However, to tell the truth, there is nothing that will dissuade Pakistan from the suicidal path as long as it is the Rawalpindi military brass which calls the shots. The Pak army is the strongest guarantee of Pakistan ultimately suffering from complete wrack and ruin.
A point Indians must weigh coolly is whether slow death of Pakistan is better than going to war and put roadblocks in our own economic growth. It must be considered that if Pakistan keeps going on the path of Islamic jihad, its slow but certain fall and ultimate disintegration, with fissiparous forces already openly raising their heads, is certain. Admittedly, it is hard to turn the other cheek when someone is bent on being violent, but wisdom lies in ensuring its decline and fall with minimum costs to self.
