Electoral dynamics at times are not dictated by political logic. This magic happens when the supreme leader bears the charisma that can over shadow objective social and political factors. That’s what has happened in the current round of assembly elections when the BJP came out triumphant despite the hostile political climate. In fact, it will be fallacious to give credit to the BJP. The sole reason for the BJP’s success is the exceptional bonding Prime Minister Narendra Modi has created with the masses. The results have shown that bonding is intact. His popularity has defied circumstantial rationale. Modi has developed a support base that is more or less frozen. It is more personal than political. It is Modi’s victory.
History bears testimony to the fact that surviving such a gruesome pandemic has been extremely difficult for governments. Covid played havoc with the people of Uttar Pradesh and Uttarakhand. Those spectacularly disconcerting images of people dying of oxygen crisis, bodies floating in the Ganga – or thrown around the riverbed, crowds lining up in front of crematoriums could have left irreparable scars on the image of any government. The accompanying economic slide, with alarming levels of unemployment, further made the situation very complex for the BJP. Local factors like the menace of stray cattle, changing caste equations and the impact of farmers’ movement further darkened the backdrop against which these elections were held. But the trust of the majority of voters in Modi remained intact. While there is a temptation to believe that the welfare schemes, free distribution of ration, and the general perception of safety among a section of citizens mattered, all these would have failed to achieve the intended result without charismatic leadership. The BJP has that in Modi, whose charms are not dependent on an objective assessment of socio-economic factors. It is blind faith in his persona that sustains the BJP’s juggernaut. Had electoral logic been the decisive factor, the Yogi Adityanath government wouldn’t have returned to power. After all, there was a public uprising, propelling Akhilesh Yadav who was absent from the field for four-&-half years to the high pedestal of a credible challenger. The situation was far worse in Uttarakhand where the BJP had to change two Chief Ministers within a span of a few months. The Goa and Manipur governments too performed below par. But the Modi-factor intervened to turn the tide.
There is no denying the fact that the BJP’s Hindutva and nationalism have strong votaries in the society. They have expanded their support base across the country on these planks. But you need a face to symbolize these values. While Modi is one such face, even Yogi Adityanath plays a perfect complementary role. His image as a tough administrator, no matter how critics decry his toxic barbs and bulldozer rhetoric, must have helped the BJP bolster its aggressive Hindutva narrative. With Modi’s support, Yogi now becomes the first Chief Minister in the history of Uttar Pradesh to complete the five-year term and get re-elected to power. This victory will doubtlessly give a huge fillip to the BJP’s prospects for the 2024 parliamentary election. The opposition, on the other hand, will continue to struggle for a sound footing. With the Congress being contemptuously kicked out from Punjab an ditsinability to encash the anti-incumbency in Uttarakhand, Manipur, and Goa, the opposition will remain rudderless. Regional leaders will be able to mount more pressure on the party, extracting their pound of flesh from the Congress which dreams of retaining its leadership role. While the Congress will still get opportunities to regain its clout, with elections in Gujarat, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Rajasthan, and Chhattisgarh lined up before the final battle in 2024, it will have to sort out its leadership crisis and rebuild the organization with utmost sincerity. Whether the Congress revival plans succeed or not, the opposition has been considerably weakened by these assembly elections. The BJP and Modi face no credible challenge at the national level at this stage. In fact, Modi will use this opportunity to further consolidate himself. The surprising electoral successes are bound to create space for him to deal with the national and global challenges with far greater confidence and poise. He needed this political space in the face of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine triggering unforeseen crises, including a rise in the prices of crude oil, apart from other diplomatic and economic issues. These results have come as a god send for Modi at this critical stage of the second term. He will grab it with both hands.
