A conflict thousands of kilometres away in West Asia does not merely threaten fuel prices; it strikes at the very nutrient lifeline sustaining one of the world’s largest agricultural systems. From the vast paddy fields of Punjab and the Gangetic plains to the rainfed rice belts of Maharashtra and onwards to Vietnam’s Mekong Delta and Thailand’s central plains, rice farmers across India and Southeast Asia confront a dual crisis that could reshape food security for billions.
The ongoing tensions in West Asia have disrupted fertiliser shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, driving up costs and triggering shortages. Alongside, there is a looming El Niño, promising erratic monsoons, potential drought, and heightened climate volatility.
The polycrisis is playing out vividly in rice. Rice cultivation is intensely fertiliser-dependent, particularly on nitrogen-based inputs that fuel lush leaf and stem growth. Soaring fertiliser prices are looming over rice farmers in South and Southeast Asia, as they prepare for the growing season, posing a risk to the food supply, as Nikkei Asia noted earlier this month.
“Higher fertiliser prices mean higher farming costs. In emerging markets, where costs are especially hard to pass on in food prices, farmers tend to reduce fertiliser use instead. This could depress crop yields,” says Nikkei.
Asia’s rice farmers also have to deal with skyrocketing prices of other agricultural supplies and transportation, all of which would push up production costs.
India is a critical part of the rice story. It is the world’s largest rice producer and exporter. No other nation can match India’s scale in supplying affordable rice to global markets.
Yet, vulnerability runs deep. Around 25-35% of India’s total fertiliser imports originate from Gulf states—but the share rises significantly for urea and nitrogen fertilisers, critical for rice production. The Narendra Modi government has tried to allay fears by pointing out that domestic urea production has reached 37.49 lakh tonnes in March-April, nearly matching last year's levels despite the West Asia crisis, and that it has secured 37 lakh tonnes of imported urea to meet the shortfall ahead of the Kharif season.
Still, ground realities bite harder. Headlines scream anxiety: Hike in fuel prices, shortage of fertilisers worry Punjab's paddy farmers. Maharashtra, which grows significant rainfed rice on about 1.5 million hectares, is actively considering rationing of fertilisers amid the shortages. The All India Kisan Sabha (AIKS) has strongly opposed the recent increase in petrol and diesel prices, demanding an immediate rollback and the supply of tax-free diesel for agricultural use at Rs 35 per litre.
In Southeast Asia, the strain mirrors India’s. Many Vietnamese and Thai farmers are delaying planting. Smallholders everywhere contend with delayed deliveries and spot prices that render full nutrient application uneconomic.
Yet, crisis breeds adaptation. Across the region, there are emerging ideas and buzz about experiments with reduced chemical doses, biofertilisers, organic manure, and shifts toward pulses and millets. Mechanisms like the ASEAN Plus Three Emergency Rice Reserve (APTERR) offer a model, though scaled modestly for simultaneous shocks. Think tanks advocate a parallel BIMSTEC rice reserve—encompassing India, Thailand, Myanmar, and Bangladesh—to bypass SAARC’s political hurdles and ensure robust regional buffers.
Vietnam exemplifies forward momentum. In April 2026, its ministry of agriculture and environment advanced the “One Million Hectares of High-Quality, Low-Emission Rice” initiative, linking productivity with green growth. The Philippines is promoting mung beans in drought zones, solar irrigation, greenhouses, and earlier planting, while strengthening the National Rice Program and Rice Competitiveness Enhancement Fund. India is deploying climate-resilient seeds, drone-based precision fertiliser application to slash waste, and controlled exports under minimum price floors alongside massive grain reserves.
Arguably, the deeper imperative lies in reforming India’s fertiliser policy, long strained by import dependence, fiscal burden, and ecological harm. India produces 80% of its urea domestically and pushes toward full self-reliance, yet the sector relies on imported energy. Phosphatic fertilisers pose an acute challenge: India holds virtually no rock phosphate reserves. The Nutrient-Based Subsidy (NBS) scheme, launched in 2010, ties support to nutrient content but exempts urea—keeping it artificially cheap. The result? Soil acidification, groundwater contamination, and imbalanced NPK ratios. Bringing urea under NBS, rationalising subsidies, scaling bio-fertilisers, organic manure, and legume rotations would restore balance and cut demand. Green ammonia offers promise, though water scarcity limits its viability in many areas.
In India, the core challenge has shifted. Mass starvation is no longer the spectre, thanks to buffer stocks and extensive public distribution systems, feeding 800 million people with subsidised grain even in lean years. The real burdens are financial—subsidies straining budgets amid price spikes, logistical waste in over-centralised procurement and storage, and nutritional shortfalls from imbalanced diets and inefficient systems.
2026 tests Asia’s resilience. Interlocking crises of geopolitics and climate risk becoming annual. Building a united rice shield—through diversified supplies, precision agriculture, regional reserves, and sustainable input reforms—is not sentimental regionalism; it is pragmatic insurance for the future. India and its Southeast Asian partners must seize this moment to harden buffers, slash waste through modern storage and milling, accelerate smart farming, and treat food security as a shared strategic asset and a shared plate of rice.
Patralekha Chatterjee is a writer and columnist who spends her time in South and Southeast Asia, and looks at modern-day connects between the two adjacent regions. X: @Patralekha2011
