There is definite desperation in the Hindutva camp. The first phase of polling for 102 seats, particularly in the Hindi belt, has spoken loud and clear that anti-incumbency is working against the government. Price rise, unemployment and corruption are huge issues and the voter is upset at the way these issues are being dealt with by the government. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s blatantly communal speech in Banswara, Rajasthan is a pointer that he has sensed that something drastic needs to be done to neutralise dis-enchantment of a section of the Hindu voters with the government. Though Modi is known for such utterances, in my opinion this time as prime minister he has crossed the line — and that can only happen if he has visualised catastrophe in the coming days.
As reported, the prime minister, speaking in Hindi, said, “Earlier they were in power, they had said Muslims have the first right to the wealth of the nation. This means they will distribute this wealth to those who have more children, and infiltrators. Should your hard-earned money be given to infiltrators ? Do you agree to this ?” He further says, “Congress manifesto says they will take stock of the gold that mothers and daughters have and will distribute that wealth. Manmohan Singh’s government had said Muslims have the first right to wealth. Brothers and sisters, this urban naxal thinking will not spare even the mangalsutras of our mothers and sisters.”
Congress president Mallikarjun Kharge reacted rather bitterly, The Indian Express reports: “Uttering lies to gain power and making baseless references to things to foist false accusations on opponents are the speciality of the training of the Sangh and BJP. ... He should be ashamed for lying and for trying to divide the country.”
Modi is one politician who does not speak out of turn. His every move and action is very well calibrated and strategically planned. He and his think tank must have done their homework and calculated the impact on voters. The prime minister is Hindutva’s biggest icon that this country has produced since Independence — bigger than the original Hindutva icon, L K Advani, who is credited with bringing Hindutva to the centrestage of Indian politics. But it was under Modi’s leadership that the BJP for the first time could muster majority numbers in the 2014 election. And he successfully repeated the same performance in 2019 with more than 300 seats.
Since 2014, the Modi cult has become a matter of folklore and today BJP is nothing but Modi. Veteran editor Prabhu Chawla says, “Modi is the idea, Modi is the party and Modi is Hindutva; BJP today without him is nothing.” In his opinion, Modi is the only narrative in this election. In this context, why does the prime minister, who prides himself on making the country the fifth largest economy in the world, resort to blatantly communal articulation in an election rally? If the country is the fastest-growing economy in the world, then why does he have to raise the Hindu-Muslim bogey? If the economy is doing as well as the BJP leaders and ministers claim, then why does the prime minister have to remind voters what the then prime minister Manmohan Singh had said almost 18 years ago, which is that minorities have the first right over national resources? If there is no unemployment in the country, and price rise is under control as claimed by government supporters, then why is the prime minister trying to scare Hindu voters by saying that the Congress will distribute wealth to Muslims if it comes to power?
The PM’s utterance assumes importance as it has come just after the first phase of polling. It is no coincidence, it is no slip of tongue, it is a part of a well-thought-out strategy.
First, if the BJP and the prime minister had thought that the party was going to sweep the 2024 Parliamentary elections then they are grossly mistaken. Low polling in the first phase is indicative of the fact that there is zero enthusiasm among voters, and they have not been won over by the claim that BJP will get 370 seats. There is a strange indifference towards these elections. This is bad news for the prime minister and it means that voters lack the incentive to vote for the Modi government for a third term.
Second, The prime minister knows that Muslims hardly vote for the BJP despite tall claims of “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas”. The recent Centre for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS) survey has consistently proved that less than 10% Muslims have been voting for the BJP and this time due to Rahul Gandhi’s Bharat Jodo Yatra, these is definite shift among Muslim voters towards the Congress. And if a large part of Hindu voters are not enthused to go to the polling station and vote for the BJP, then it can cause havoc for its chances to regain power. The prime minister’s utterance is an attempt to scare and awaken a section of Hindu voters to vote for the BJP.
Third, polarisation of voters along the Hindu-Muslim line is an age-old tactic of the BJP’s. The prime minister knows that despite big claims, people are suffering due to the acute price rise, high unemployment and rising corruption. The CSDS survey has shown that people are unhappy with the Modi government. When people were asked if there was an increase in price rise, unemployment and corruption in the last five years the answer was ‘yes’ and when asked who is responsible for this, they blamed the central government more than the state governments. That means the prime minister has failed miserably in the eyes of the public in handling these issues and so the balloon of Modi’s Vikas model seems to have burst. That leaves the prime minister with only communal issues if he has to win elections.
Fourthly, this is also an attempt to provoke Muslims to do something stupid which can galvanise Hindu voters towards the BJP. One of the greatest puzzles of the Modi era is that despite grave provocations, barring a few exceptions, the Muslim community has shown remarkable fortitude, has not resorted to violence and radicalisation, and has not vented its frustration at the regime in the streets. Muslims have realised that any violent act on their part will adversely impact the community and help the forces of Hindutva. Their silence is strategic and it is working well for them.
Modi hates losing. He has set the party an extremely large target in this election, but the mood of the nation is changing. People are not moved by tall promises of development. Field reports and surveys by credible agencies have shown that even the construction of the Ram Mandir is not an election issue. At the end of ten years people are asking questions, and if answers are not satisfactory then the people have the right to decide the fate of the government. To change the mood of the nation, the prime minister has to think out of the box, beyond the Hindu-Muslim binary. Can he do that?
The writer is Editor, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B
