Maldives, a speck on the world map compared to India, is quite a handful at the moment, keeping us on our toes. As President Mohamed Muizzu has pulled out all stops to prove his loyalty to China at India’s cost, New Delhi simply can’t afford to take its eyes off the strategically located island nation. But despite a persisting strain, there is a silver lining: the diplomatic and security establishments of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s government are handling the irrepressible oceanic state with a cool head, sidestepping a series of provocations. Befitting the resident power, New Delhi is being prudently indulgent in its backyard.
Take the interim union budget for instance. Shrugging off Male’s “India Out” stand and the overall deterioration in bilateral relations due to Muizzu’s decision to openly align with Beijing, the Modi government has actually increased the budgetary allocation for Maldives; the biggest increase in the allocation of funds among all countries in our immediate neighbourhood is for Maldives!
Under ‘Aid to Countries’ in ‘Budget Estimates’ presented in Parliament on February 1, Rs 600 crore has been set aside for Maldives, whereas in the 2023-24 budget, only Rs 400 crore was allocated. It is another matter that Rs 400 crore was gradually revised to Rs 770.90 crore. We can presume that Rs 600 crore too will be bumped up substantially. Importantly, more funds have just been earmarked for Maldives despite the overall allocation for aid to various countries decreasing from Rs 5408.37 crore in the previous budget to Rs 4883.53 crore in the interim budget.
This can only mean that New Delhi has wisely decided to keep allocating funds generously for resource-hungry Maldives. India has clearly taken a decision to keep funding the big and small projects that were launched during Muizzu’s predecessor, Mohamed Solih’s India-friendly regime. New Delhi’s strategy now is to fall back on all the big investments, especially in infrastructure, to remain in the game despite the regime change. We need not panic or despair. The best course for India at this juncture is to keep its head down and work quietly to a plan in the somewhat adverse situation.
I have no doubts that our chequebook diplomacy, manifested in the sharp increase in the budgetary allocation for Maldives despite the cracks in bilateral ties, will pay us very good dividends if we tread carefully without picking unnecessary fights.
India’s decision to move its military personnel out of Maldives is another positive development underlining quiet confidence and maturity. Muizzu has set the cat among the pigeons by unilaterally announcing a deadline for removing Indian troops by March 15. New Delhi was on the back foot after Muizzu suddenly served the ultimatum on his return from Beijing. But during a key meeting of a high-level core group comprising Maldivian and Indian officials held in New Delhi on February 2 — a day after the sharp hike in the budgetary allocation for Maldives — India tactfully agreed to start withdrawing its 88 defence personnel stationed in the archipelago from March 10 and complete the process by May 10.
The Indian defence personnel were deployed for operating two helicopters and a Dornier aircraft which provide humanitarian and medical evacuation services in the island nation. Their removal was a key plank of Muizzu’s election campaign which swept him to power riding nationalist sentiments. Importantly, the India-gifted naval choppers and Dornier aircraft will remain in Maldives but they will henceforth be operated by Indian civilians and Maldivian defence personnel, instead of Indian military personnel.
But Male is not crowing about forcing India to withdraw its troops. Despite having its way, the Maldives Foreign Ministry statement said that India had agreed to “replace” the military personnel; the discreet use of the word “replace” instead of “withdraw”, is a marked shift from its earlier vociferous demand for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel for preserving Maldives’ sovereignty and independence. So there are visible signs of mellowing in Male too, probably induced by India giving in to Maldives’ legitimate wish not to have any foreign troops on its soil.
Yet, there is no denying that Maldives is determined to decrease its dependence on India. In the last five years, Indian defence personnel used the two helicopters and Dornier plane for 600 medical evacuations from various islands to Male, as well as search and rescue operations. Now, as Indian military personnel start packing their bags after the agreement arrived at on February 2, Maldives has inked a pact with Sri Lanka for assistance in medical evacuation and emergency medical treatment services. Amid strained ties with India, Muizzu has announced setting up an air ambulance service that would take patients not only to Sri Lanka but even as far as Thailand without having to depend on India.
Male put New Delhi in the dock again last week, accusing Indian Coast Guard of forcibly boarding three Maldivian fishing vessels within the Maldivian special economic zone and interrogating the fishermen. It issued an official statement identifying our naval ships and demanding comprehensive details and an explanation for the “operation that was carried out while Maldivians were fishing in Maldivian waters, without any coordination with relevant authorities, and against all international laws”. Apparently, the Maldivian National Defence Force stepped in when the fishermen accused Indian naval forces of bullying them.
India has not commented on Male’s charge. Our silence demonstrates that we want the issue to die a natural death. Importantly, the pro-India former president, Ibrahim Solih, too has accused New Delhi of violating international laws. But our External Affairs and Defence ministries are still keeping mum. This is a welcome sign of maturity behoving a regional superpower.
The author is an independent, Pegasused reporter and commentator on foreign policy and domestic politics
