IT is ironic indeed that after decades of Mulayam hegemony, the choice in the party is confined to that one family and that the new generation has a clear edge over the patriarch in these times when in principle youth triumphs over experience and leaders are judged by the company they keep.
Whatever be the outcome of the Samajwadi Party symbol issue which is before the Election Commission (the likelihood is that the current symbol would be frozen pending a final decision which may take time), the battle of perception between patriarch and founder Mulayam Singh Yadav and his iconic son and chief minister Akhilesh Yadav has been won by the latter.
It is ironic indeed that after decades of Mulayam hegemony, the choice in the party is confined to that one family and that the new generation has a clear edge over the patriarch in these times when in principle youth triumphs over experience and leaders are judged by the company they keep.
Recent ‘olive branch’ politics between father and son is a futile exercise because Mulayam is being increasingly seen as a spent force while Akhilesh is on the ascendant. Yet, in a state in which there are two clear alternatives to the Samajwadi party — the BJP and the Bahujan Samaj Party— there is a clear possibility that the average voter may opt to jettison both the factions of the Samajwadi Party.
While on the face of it, it appears too late for the two faction to kiss and make up, the electorate would take into account that in the last couple of months they have put aside thinking about the State’s development and welfare needs and focussed all attention on countering each other to gain relative supremacy in the party. The means and the ends have both been brazenly selfish and self-centred.
The things on which the Mulayam faction has lost out are poor planning, fickleness of approach and, above all, the credentials of those who have been close to him. One can hardly blame Mulayam for his tired reflexes given his age and his family circumstances. By contrast, Akhilesh may be short on experience but he is in his prime and has better leaders around him.
In all fairness to him, Mulayam, though untainted by allegations of personal corruption, is affected by close association with his brother Shivpal Yadav who is something of a wheeler-dealer and known to keep company with dubious individuals of questionable integrity. That Shivpal was insistent on giving tickets in the upcoming elections to some such persons is common knowledge.
Akhilesh, on the other hand, has scored on the integrity quotient. As chief minister and earlier also as party chief in Uttar Pradesh before Mulayam forced him to shed the post to Shivpal, Akhilesh has had a cleaner record which he has shrewdly exploited to build up his image with the people, especially the youth and the urban middle class. Clearly, Akhilesh has had his finger on the pulse of the people which is standing him in good stead.
The company that Akhilesh has been keeping has also been unobjectionable. His main lieutenant has been Ram Gopal Yadav who has stood by him through thick and thin, despite Mulayam needling him repeatedly, especially at the instance of Shivpal. Ram Gopal is a cousin of Mulayam and hence Akhilesh’s uncle.
Another actor in the drama is Azam Khan who draws his strength from the fact that Muslims constitute 18 per cent of UP’s population and have consistently been on the right side of the Samajwadis. Azam is an unabashed supporter of a reconciliation between father and son and is looked upon by both Mulayam and Akhilesh as being well-intentioned. That he is a diehard Muslim and a controversial one at that does not bother either of them because he is a vital bridge for the Samajwadi factions with the Muslim electorate.
Mayawati’s BSP is also hugely dependent on the Muslim vote and is leaving no stone unturned in wooing the minority and working to forge an understanding between the Dalits and the Muslims. Mayawati has been appealing to Muslims to desert the SP since it is in a state of flux, among other reasons, but if it is between Akhilesh and Mayawati, there is every chance that more Muslims will opt for the former because of his pro-development promises as opposed to the casteist approach to politics of Mayawati.
Akhilesh also now commands the support of Naresh Agarwal and Kironmoy Nanda, both of whom are important party leaders in Delhi, and see Akhilesh as the future face of the party. They have both been expelled by the Mulayam faction but couldn’t care less about it because they see their future in sticking to rising star Akhilesh.
In all the drama that has been going on, the Congress may be a marginal player but it is banking on Akhilesh’s new-found love for Rahul Gandhi. An alliance between the two parties may help the Muslim electorate decide in favour of them in preference to Mayawati but the Congress itself has little to gain from the alliance. Riding on Akhilesh’s shoulders it may win a few more seats but for it to make a major mark is unlikely.
Akhilesh himself may have second thoughts on a pact with the Congress because of his commitment to his party cadres to contest all seats.
As for the BJP, it has shown itself as a cohesive party in UP with Prime Minister Narendra Modi being its trump-card with his avowedly consistent pro-development agenda and promise of better law and order. But the BJP lacks a credible leader to steer its UP ship. Even then, it is a party to watch in the run-up to the Assembly elections.
