There are clear risks that Iraq’s political transition could be caught in the crossfires between the US and Israel’s raging war with regional heavyweight Iran. This is the stark reality on the ground, as Washington on Wednesday ended the 12-year mission—Operation Inherent Resolve—to wipe out the jihadist Islamic State from Iraq. This scenario is not very unlike what followed the US 2011 withdrawal as an occupation force after George W. Bush and the UK’s Tony Blair waged a brutal, illegal, and ignominious war in 2003 to depose Sadam Hussein.
Militias Gain Confidence Amid Tensions
Tehran-backed Shiite Muslim militias—originally established to resist American occupation forces well over a decade ago—are already feeling emboldened under the emerging regional configuration. They have carried out strikes against American targets within and outside of Iraq since the February 28 US and Israeli war against Iran and even coordinated with Yemen’s Houthi rebels against Saudi Arabia. A leader of Kataib Hezbollah, a prominent Iran-backed militia, ominously warned recently of serious consequences if the government in Baghdad complied with the US sanctions against Tehran. The warning is a reminder of the pressure Washington has exerted—commentators liken it to a nuclear option—blocking the flow of hard currency money earned from Iraq’s own oil revenues as long as Iran-backed militias were not deterred from retaliatory strikes on American interests. In an indication of where the levers of control lie over the purse strings, these earnings are paid not into Iraqi accounts, but into those held in the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Government Faces Militia Challenge
Prime Minister Ali al-Zaidi’s government—installed after President Donald Trump opposed the return of a two-term former Shiite premier—has billed Wednesday’s US withdrawal as marking the restoration of Iraqi national sovereignty. But his efforts to disband or bring the militias under state control by next year appear an ambitious target. In fact, the more powerful of the armed factions have demanded the expulsion of Iranian Kurdish dissident groups and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (AKK) from the country, which few believe the government could concede.
Kurdistan Faces New Security Risks
Meanwhile, even after the exit of the last coalition forces, there is apparently no certainty of any respite from exposure to militia attacks in Iraq’s northern semi-autonomous region of Kurdistan. The provincial government is beefing up aerial security to fill in for the void left by the departing coalition forces and to pre-empt any Iran-affiliated military offensive. Baghdad may see fit to exert greater centralised control over the region, raising concerns of an erosion of the territory’s relative autonomy.
US Withdrawal And Its Legacy
As Washington quits Iraq for the third time since the 1990s, there are strong remnants of the reprehensible motivations that have underpinned US foreign policy to effect “regime change” in dealings with adversary states. In consequence, the entire world community continues to pay a huge price in terms of a steady erosion of democratic norms.
