Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party is all set to form the new government in the state of Punjab. Chief Minister-designate, comedian turned politician Bhagwant Singh Mann will take oath today.
This victory of the Aam Aadmi Party is significant in many ways but most importantly, the Congress Party has a lotto worry about. This is because Arvind Kejriwal can do more harm to Congress than PM Narendra Modi in the upcoming state elections and even in the 2024 national election.
Until this election, the Aam Aadmi Party was just a regional party. Despite winning three times in the national capital of India, the Aam Aadmi Party had no full state under them. Delhi is not a full state, therefore, the elected government does not hold power over the police, land, and bureaucracy. Punjab will be the first full state where AAP will have control over the law and order. Despite ruling Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party failed in the Lok Sabha elections, and all the seven Lok Sabha seats went to BJP. Kejriwal's party is alsonotinpower inthe three municipalities of the capital.
For all these reasons, the Punjab 2022 election was very personal for Arvind Kejriwal and his political future. The Aam Aadmi Party has not only wiped the state of Punjab but also opened its book in Goa. The Aam Aadmi Party is no more a Delhi-centric party.
The rise of Kejriwal in Delhi happened by taking over the voters of the Congress party. In Delhi, the Aam Aadmi Party gets the supportof the Muslims, Dalits, a certain section of OBCs, and people from poor economic backgrounds. These were traditionally the Congress vote bank in Delhi. On the contrary, despite their repeated loss, the BJP has maintained its voter base in Delhi. For example, the Baniyas (trader class) has remained hardcore voters of the BJP, and the AAP could not take away the votes from these sections.
In Punjab too, this time Arvind Kejriwal-led Aam Aadmi Party won by completely taking away the Congress voter bank. The AAP also took away a significant section of Shiromani Akali Dal‘s voters. However,the key harm it did was to the Congress party.
The Aam Aadmi Party will not stop here. After its magnificent victory in Punjab, it will venture into other states. The elections in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh will happen soon. In both states, the fight has been between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress Party. AAP might also look at Karnataka as part of its immediate expansion plan.
In Gujarat, the Aam Aadmi Party earlier contested both the assembly elections of 2017 and the Lok Sabha elections of 2019. Significantly, the Aam Aadmi Party also fought six civic polls in the state of Gujarat last year. In Surat, Kejriwal's party won 27 out of 120 seats and became the key opposition party. The Aam Aadmi Party took away the voters of the Congress party in Surat as well which brought Congress to come in the third position.
In India, in over 200 seats the fight is between the Bharatiya Janata Party and the Congress party. The rise of Arvind Kejriwal and winning Punjab will allow him to venture more into the other states. This venture will only be focused on taking away the Congress voters. In the runup to the state elections of 2022 in Punjab, Goa, and Uttarakhand, the Aam Aadmi Party’s key attack has been pointed at Congress more than the BJP. The narrative which Arvind Kejriwal breached was thatvoting for the Congress party will mean voting for the Bharatiya Janata Party because, after the elections,the CongressMLAs will be sold outto the BJP.
With the massive defeats in the five-state elections, the Congress Party is definitely in a miserable condition. It is clear that there will not be much changed with in the Congress party. Amid the massive decline across India and growing in fighting, the Congress is still stuck to the Gandhi family. For the last several years the party does not even have a full-time president. Just after the defeatin these states,the Congress party held a meeting of its working committee and after the usual drama maintained the status quo of having Sonia Gandhi as the interim president. The grand old party is unable to understand that this kind of situation puts a threatinside the minds of their voters.
From Trinamool Supremo Mamata Banerjee to Arvind Kejriwal to YSRCP's Jagan Mohan Reddy, many other leaders have succeeded in their politics by taking away the voters of the Congress party. In states like Bihar and Uttar Pradesh, the regional parties have taken away thevotersof theCongress Party. There isnokey vote bank of the Congress party anymore. For example, the Muslim community used to be a hardcore vote bank of the Congress Party. But, with time, they have shifted to other political parties. In this situation, there are some advantages of Arvind Kejriwal which makes him a bigger threat to the Congress party than any other regional leader or nationalleader. Kejriwal has an ambition and a hunger for power; he is also very young and dynamic with his presence around the Hindi heartland and his proficiency in the Hindilanguage.
If the AAP fights in Gujarat, Himachal, and Karnataka assembly elections then it will do more harm to the Congress Party than the BJP. It is high time for Congress to stop underestimating Arvind Kejriwal because after Punjab he has sent the message that in the upcoming days he will grow and Congress should be worried about this.
The author is an independent journalist based in Kolkata and a former policy research fellow at Delhi Assembly Research Center. He tweets as @sayantan_gh. Views expressed are entirely personal
