Jammu and Kashmir is witnessing its most crucial Assembly election after a 10-year-long wait. There is hectic jockeying over seats with politicians switching from one political party to another in a desperate bid to ensure a party ticket. In all, 279 candidates applied for 24 seats for which voting will take place in the first phase on September 18. The list has been pared down to 219 candidates from which 91 are standing as Independents.
It is almost as though any politician worth his salt believes he must be seen to be standing for election even in the likelihood of facing a defeat. Between five to eight candidates are contesting every seat. Political analysts believe that while the Lok Sabha election saw J&K’s highest turnout in 35 years at 58.56%, this was a significant increase from 19.16% in 2019.
Eyebrows are being raised at the large number of Independents who are contesting. For politicians and political parties in this trouble-torn union territory, the ending of the political hiatus has now been replaced by a desperate fight for survival and relevance. Given the dramatically altered reality resulting from the abrogation of Article 370 and 35 A and the skewed delimitation process which has altered the map of this erstwhile state, politicians themselves are trying to come to terms with how these changes will get reflected in the way the public will vote.
Of course, a large number of those contesting as Independents are candidates who failed to get a nomination from mainstream parties. Take the example of Valley politician Altaf Bukhari who contested the 2014 polls from the Central Salteng seat on a PDP ticket but then, following the abrogation of Article 370, moved to the Apni Party founded by businessman Altaf Bukhari. With the Apni Party regarded as a BJP proxy in the valley and faring poorly in the Lok Sabha 2024 election, he is now contesting the Central Salteng seat as an Independent.
The PDP candidate former MLA from South Kashmir Aijaz Mir, recently announced he will contest as an Independent from the Zainpora seat. He justified his move on the grounds that the party had announced another candidate from this constituency.
The BJP has also faced considerable internal discord in the ticket distribution process having brought in outsiders from other parties notably former Omar Abdullah’s aide Devender Rana and former PDP leader Chowdhary Zulfikar.
Old-timer Chander Mohan Sharma who joined the RSS in the 70s and was jailed several times due to his political beliefs is one of the many BJP leaders who has been denied a ticket. He has traditionally contested from Jammu east. His party loyalists went on a rampage in the BJP party office in Jammu. Sharma has resigned from the party and has entered the fray as an Independent. Samba district president Kashmir Singh who has been in BJP for 42 years also quit the party on being overlooked in favour of an NC candidate. He is also standing from Samba seat as an Independent candidate.
Several of the Independents belong to the Jamaat-e-Islami J&K. This influential pro-Pakistan outfit known to be the ideological fountain head of the Hizbul Mujahideen was banned under the anti-terror law in 2019 following the Pulwama attack.
New Delhi had been talking to the leaders of this group who had been demanding the lifting of the ban on their organisation.
Despite the ban not being lifted, several members of the Jamaat have decided to participate in the Assembly polls, egged on no doubt by the success of the separatist leader Rashid Engineer who defeated NC leader Omar Abdullah from the Baramulla constituency in the 2024 Lok Sabha elections. The fact that Rashid Engineer could lead from 15 of the 18 Assembly segments indicates that there is a strong undercurrent of opinion amongst the public who are supporting these newcomers as opposed to members of the more mainstream parties.
Another leader, Muhammed Ashraf Mir, who had defeated Omar Abdullah in the 2008 Assembly polls on a PDP ticket earning him the sobriquet of “king slayer”, is now contesting on an Apni Party ticket from the historic Lal Chowk seat against his nephew Zuhaib Mir who joined the PDP in 2022.
There is a very strong anti-BJP sentiment in the valley largely because of the violence and terror that has been inflicted on the Muslim population in the last decade. Both the PDP and the NC are seen as being run by “opportunistic dynasts” who will not hesitate to make peace with the BJP if required.
The Jamaat has decided to field four candidates for the first phase who are fighting as Independents. These are Dr Kaleemullah Lone from North Kashmir’s Langate seat, former Kashmir Chamber of Commerce and Industries president Sheikh Ashiq as its candidate from Ganderbal against Omar Abdullah, the trade union leader Ishtiyaq Qadri from Habakadal and Mohammad Maqbool Beig from Hazratbal.
The Langate seat (voting on second phase) will see a tight contest. Engineer Rashid’s brother Sheikh Khursheed has now quit his government job to strengthen and work towards the success of his party. Khursheed has been winning the Langate seat from 2008 and is likely to win this seat once again.
Javid Hubbi, son of former Hurriyat leader Ghulam Mohammad Hubbi, is the candidate of Engineer Rashid Awami Itehad Party from the Charar-e-Sharif assembly segment.
Another separatist leader who has joined PDP is Aga Muntazir Mehdi who is a prominent Shia cleric and the son of Hurriyat leader Aga Syed Hassan. Another leader who has thrown in his hat is Altaf Ahmed Bhat from south Kashmir’s Pulwama. He is the brother of Bashir Ahmed Bhat who was a close aide of the late Hurriyat leader Syed Ali Geelani. Bashir Ahmed has been charged with terror funding and has been in jail for the last seven years.
While mainstream leaders including the BJP have welcomed these separatists for contesting polls, insisting there has been an ideological shift in their thinking as they now want to join the mainstream, several Kashmir-watchers are not so sure.
Author RC Ganjoo who has written two books on Kashmir says, “It seems ironic that the Modi government, which had banned and jailed all leaders whom they considered separatists, is now holding a dialogue with them and allowing them to contest elections. The Jamaat has infiltrated the rank and file of the bureaucracy and is known to take its orders from across the border. Allowing them to contest elections can lead to dangerous consequences.”
It is obvious that BJP is pulling out all the stops to prevent a “secular” collation from winning a majority in J&K. With the PDP being marginalised, political analysts believe the National Conference could end up having to pay for this proliferation of political parties and independent voices in the UT.
This has not stopped the NC leadership from nominating six political scions, including Mian Altaf Ali from the ST reserved Kangan Assembly seat which is now seen as a family bastion which they have held on to from 1987. It is obvious that many of these political families are determined to maintain their hold in politics. Mehbooba Mufti is no exception, having fielded her daughter Iltija from Bijbehara, a seat from which she and her father Mufti Mohammed Sayeed have also contested. But observers here believe that by doing so, she has alienated its one sure winner, Abdul Rehman Veeri, who has been a winning candidate from here on several occasions. Veeri is now contesting as an Independent.
Rashme Sehgal is an author and an independent journalist
