India Faces High Risk Of Disrupted 2026 Monsoon As Strong El Niño Threatens Rainfall Pattern

Lucknow: India could face one of its most challenging monsoon seasons in decades as climate models warn that the evolving El Niño over the Pacific Ocean may turn into a very strong event, raising fears of erratic rainfall, heatwaves, water stress and pressure on agriculture and the economy.

The India Meteorological Department has forecast below-normal monsoon rainfall at 90 per cent of the Long Period Average for 2026, but weather experts say the bigger concern is the possibility of a powerful El Niño disrupting rainfall distribution across the country.

According to projections by the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, there is an 82 per cent chance of El Niño developing during May-July 2026, rising to 96 per cent by winter. Climate models indicate nearly a two-in-three probability of a strong to very strong El Niño by late 2026, placing it among the most intense events seen since 1950.

Meteorologists said the emerging climate pattern resembles conditions seen during past Super El Niño years such as 1982-83, 1997-98 and 2015-16, all of which triggered major global weather disruptions.

Experts warned that India may witness longer dry spells, patchy rainfall and more frequent break-monsoon conditions, affecting kharif sowing and crop productivity across large parts of the country.

“The numerical model forecasts that the evolving El Niño event could match the Super-El Niño seen four decades ago,” said GP Sharma, President of Meteorology and Climate Change at Skymet Weather and former Air Vice Marshal of the Indian Air Force.

Scientists also cautioned that delayed monsoon progress could trigger humid heatwaves in northwest India if hot winds combine with moisture from the Arabian Sea during July and August.

Professor Raghu Murtugudde, Emeritus Professor at the University of Maryland and Visiting Professor at IIT Kanpur, said the uneven spread of rainfall may prove more damaging than the seasonal deficit itself.

“The number is not important, but the distribution of rainfall is. Models are not predicting a pretty picture and we can expect patchy rainfall with longer break-monsoon conditions,” he said.

India’s agriculture sector remains especially vulnerable because nearly 52 per cent of cultivated land is rain-fed. Experts warned that poor rainfall could reduce groundwater recharge, lower reservoir levels and intensify pressure on irrigation systems.

Food policy analyst Devinder Sharma said India was entering a dangerous phase where climate risks were colliding with inflation, heat stress and fertiliser shortages.

“This is a deadly combination for India, especially for agriculture,” he said.

Dr G V Ramanjaneyulu, Executive Director of the Centre for Sustainable Agriculture, said delayed rainfall and prolonged dry spells could severely affect crops and force farmers to depend more on irrigation.

“The problem is not just the total reduction in rainfall, but the way the rainfall is distributed. Predictions suggest this could be one of the worst monsoons in the past 150 years,” he said.

Climate experts also warned that a weak monsoon could trigger wider economic consequences, including food inflation, rising electricity demand and slower rural consumption.

Dr Anjal Prakash, Professor of Public Policy at FLAME University, said the rainfall deficit posed an immediate threat to India’s water security and food systems.

“With 52 per cent of India’s net cultivated area rain-fed and 40 per cent of food production dependent on monsoon rains, this shortfall will strain both rural livelihoods and national food security,” he said.

Experts said a positive Indian Ocean Dipole could provide some relief later in the season by supporting rainfall activity. However, they cautioned that it may not be strong enough to fully counter the effects of an intense El Niño event.

Climate analysts warned that India now faces the risk of simultaneous climate and economic shocks if extreme heat, weak monsoon conditions and global energy uncertainties continue together through the year.