Virus doubling rate drops in Mumbai to 1,051 days

Mumbai: The doubling rate of Covid-19 cases has come down to 1,051 days after the city reported the highest rate of 1,397 days on February 4. Similarly the weekly growth rate has also increased to 0.066% per cent compared to 0.05 per cent which was in the last two months. Officials have warned citizens to follow Covid norms as the next two weeks are very crucial and cases are likely to surge.

The doubling rate is referred to as the time taken for the total number of cases to double. The rate depends on the reproduction number (R0) and the serial interval of a disease.

Senior doctors from the civic-run hospital said that the numbers suggest a clear trend, but all are mild cases, be vigilant and cautious. We had an Omicron outbreak in Mumbai and still there it is dominant and now their sub lineages are there due to which whole genome sequence is must. Moreover, ward-wise break-up of rising Covid cases shows that areas in the western suburbs are observing a faster spike.

“We definitely need to be on vigil. We need to ramp up our genomic sequencing. The positivity rate in the last two to three months was 1-3 per cent and now it has crossed 10% in Mumbai,” he said.The main reason doctors are not worried about the fourth wave right now is that the Covid variant in circulation is still Omicron.

Dr Pradeep Vyas, additional chief secretary, in his letter had directed all the district health officers to keep an in-depth analysis of daily cases considering Maharashtra has recently found patients with BA.4 and BA.5 sub variants and Mumbai has reported more cases on a daily basis. While there have been no complications associated with these cases, we need to be warned against any complacency. In order to understand various patterns and possible variations, following actions should be taken.

Dr Umang Agarwal, infectious diseases consultant, PD Hinduja Hospital and Medical Research Centre, said, “The Covid- 19 cases have certainly gone up with over 800 cases reported yesterday in Mumbai. Lack of masking and social distancing may be the most important contributing factor..Moreover, our booster vaccination rates still remain low which may be an important contributing cause. The doubling time might have gone down but it's probably temporary. Over the next few weeks we will get a better picture."

Dr Mangala Gomare, executive health officer, said there are several factors due to which the doubling rate has dropped in the city. Moreover, there has been a rise in cases over the last couple of days, with a decrease in the doubling rate and increase in growth rate being indicators of the same. However, they are stepping up containment measures accordingly and are not speaking of a lockdown but citizens will have to be more alert and follow Covid-safety protocol.

“The main reason for a surge in the positivity rate in the last one week is the violation of Covid norms by citizens. Even though cases have increased, there is no need to panic. I urge citizens to wear masks whether they are in office or visiting crowded places, so that they will not contract infection,” she said.

Published on: Tuesday, June 07, 2022, 08:37 AM IST