India to experience normal monsoon this year: IMD

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has predicted that the country will experience normal monsoon this year with rainfall expected to be 96% of the long-term average.

The IMD defines normal rainfall as between 96% and 104% of a 50-year average of 88 centimetres for the four-month season beginning June. However, the forecast comes with an error margin of +/-5% of the long period average.

Mixed views on monsoon forecast

While IMD has forecast normal monsoon this year, private forecaster Skymet Weather Services has predicted below-normal monsoon rain citing the threat of El Nino. Skymet has predicted that the coming season may bring only 94% of the rain India usually gets from June to September.

El Nino is triggered by warm water in the equatorial Pacific and can affect weather patterns worldwide. In India, it is linked to drier conditions and reduced rainfall.

Impact on agriculture and the economy

India's agriculture sector, which accounts for about 18% of the economy and is the main source of livelihood for about 60% of the population, depends heavily on timely and adequate monsoon showers.

Nearly half of India's farmland, which has no irrigation cover, depends on annual June-September rains to grow crops such as rice, corn, cane, cotton and soybeans. Monsoon uncertainty, therefore, could pose a potential risk to the economy.

RBI to closely monitor inflation outlook

The Reserve Bank of India's monetary policy committee recently decided to pause rate hikes. However, Governor Shaktikanta Das has termed this a "pause, not pause" and said that the impact of recent unseasonal rains in some parts of the country needs to be watched.

He added that the rate-setting committee will closely monitor the evolving inflation outlook. Despite global inflation moderating in recent months, Das said that its descent to the target is proving to be long and arduous.