WTO Warns Global Trade Growth May Slow Down To 1.4% If Oil Prices Remain Elevated For Throughout 2026

If war in West Asia persists throughout 2026, the growth in global merchandise trade may slow to 1.4 percent during the year, according to the latest global trade outlook report by the World Trade Organisation (WTO).

This growth number will be a sharp decline from the 4.6 percent increase in the previous year. Even in the baseline growth scenario, in which price shocks on the oil front are not taken into account, global merchandise trade growth could be marginally higher at 1.9 percent.

The growth in merchandise trade in 2027 is expected to be 2.6 percent in the baseline growth scenario, the global trade body said.

Overall trade in goods and services is expected to grow by 2.7 percent in 2026, down from 4.7 percent in 2025, while global GDP growth is projected to slightly taper to 2.8 percent.

The latest growth projections highlight the impact of the war on the global economy, which was already reeling under tariff pressures.

The war could upend global trade, with oil prices projected to surge further from about $100 per barrel currently.

Saudi Arabia’s officials, in an internal projection, have said that oil prices could rise to as high as $180 per barrel if disruptions caused by the United States-Israel-Iran war persist until late April.

The projection forms part of the country’s base-case scenario, indicating the deep impact the ongoing conflict could have on global energy markets.

Saudi officials have outlined a phased price trajectory if disruptions persist.

In the near term, prices could range from $130–$140 per barrel. By early April, prices could surge to around $150.

If further escalation is seen in the war, prices could rise to $160–$165.

In the late April scenario, the projection is at $180+ per barrel.

Oil prices are surging amid widespread disruptions in supply due to attacks on key energy infrastructure across the West Asian region.

Analysts believe that continued disruptions to production and transportation could tighten supply further, pushing prices significantly higher.