Will the Modi model of electioneering work in Karnataka?

The Karnataka Assembly elections are going to underline the limits of the Narendra Modi phenomenon. There is no denying the fact that the prime minister is the most charismatic leader in the country. His cult following in his ideological fold has reached mythological levels. For the followers of Hindutva, he is a god-like figure. Among his followers, he is being called the first Hindu king after the legendary Prithviraj Chauhan. They believe that Modi is out to correct all the wrongs committed on Hindu civilisation and teach all those a lesson who perpetrated those wrongs in history as well as later after the freedom struggle. Modi is known to centralise the entire polity around himself; Karnatakais no exception. The present election campaign is all about Modi — regional leaders are not to be seen anywhere. They have either been deliberately marginalised or dwarfed by the Modi cult. So, in Karnataka either Modi will win or Modi will lose. 

Thanks to the Modi model of electioneering, Karnataka elections have also turned into a bitterly fought contest. The BJP has gone out of its way to retain its government by hook or by crook. Surprisingly, the Congress unlike in many other state elections is not wiling to concede an inch. If Modi and Amit shah are camping in Karnataka despite a serious crisis in Manipur, then the entire Nehru Gandhi family including Sonia Gandhi has also descended upon Bengaluru. 

The BJP, being an incumbent, obviously has an inherent disadvantage. There seems to be huge anti-incumbency factor and to neutralise that the prime minister is organising long road shows which are being live streamed by TV channels and also on social media. There is no doubt that Modi is the biggest crowdpuller for BJP, and he is one leader who does not shy away from taking bold steps. He always pushes his party to walk the extra mile. It is because of this reason that the BJP has many a time pulled victories from the jaws of defeat. Karnataka is another such test for him. 

In Karnataka, to begin with, Modi decided to change the basic arithmetic of the state’s politics. Although he was well aware that the party was overtly dependent on its tallest leader in the state, B S Yediyurappa, he replaced him with Basavraj Bommai. This gamble seemed to have not worked as Bommai is proving to be a weak leader and a non-performing CM. Being a quick thinker, Modi resorted to course correction. Yediyurappa was inducted into the parliamentary board, the defunct highest decision-making body, to a send message to his followers. To assuage the feelings of Yediyurappa being sidelined, the prime minister has publicly praised him. But this does not seem to be working. Several of Yediyurappa’s supporters and big Lingayat leaders including former CM Jagdish Shettar have joined the Congress. Last time in 2013 when Yediyurappa left the party to float his own, the BJP was badly mauled and lost its vote share substantially. If Yediyurappa supporters decide to further seek revenge from the BJP then the party will definitely be in a soup. 

Since Yediyurappa’s removal as CM, it has been propagated that Modi is trying to reinvent a New BJP, to make the BJP a pan-Karnataka party which is not restricted to any particular caste or region. It was argued that BJP’s over-dependence on Yediyurappa and his Lingayat community has restricted the BJP’s growth. Till now the BJP has not gained a majority on its own; to form the government it has had to seek support from JDS or has had to depend on defectors from the Congress and JDS. It is a fact that the BJP in these elections has tried to reach out to Vokkaligas. For this it took the bold step to not project any leader as a CM candidate. The party also tried to falsify history by claiming that Tipu Sultan was killed by two Vokkaliga warriors which has dismayed even Vokkaligas. The BJP had to withdraw when one of the Vokkaliga Mutths strongly objected to this concoction. 

But sadly, by the first week of May, the BJP realised that the wind is not blowing to its liking and therefore the party has retreated to its old tactics and communal issues. With a few exceptions, normally the prime minister avoids raising blatant communal issues and harps on development done by his government. Since he has realised that his development agenda has no takers due to rising prices, unemployment, and non-performance of the Bommai government, Modi has been left with no option but to invoke Bajrang Bali. He has gone to the extent of exhorting people to chant Bajrang Bali and press the EVM button to vote for the BJP. He has also said that the Congress had earlier imprisoned lord Ram and now it wants to imprison Hanuman. These are signals that the BJP is nervous and its core voters are in two minds.

It is ironic that Yediyurappa is singing a different tune. He has said that (communal) issues like hijab and halal meat should not be invoked. But there are other leaders who are openly saying that “love jihad” is the biggest issue — price rise and unemployment can take a backseat. Yogi Adityanath and Himanta Biswa Sarma are making anti-Muslim statements in election rallies. This is an indication that the BJP has realised that the Congress has a definite edge in the elections, and ideological consolidation around the Hindu religion and demonisation of Muslims are only options to their electoral salvation. It is no accident that the prime minister is talking about the film The Kerala Story. Like The Kashmir Files, The Kerala Story has also been dubbed a propaganda film to nurture the Hindutva agenda. The film is being accused of falsification of facts regarding the recruitment of Muslims for the terrorist organisation ISIS. 

On the other hand, the Congress has smelt victory. It is not leaving any stone unturned. Other than Rahul and Priyanka Gandhi even Sonia Gandhi has decided to campaign after four years. The Congress is viciously attacking the BJP for its mis-governance. It has brought corruption of the BJP government at the centre of the debate. 

The Congress campaign is more focused, more cohesive and it has two strong leaders in Siddaramiah and DK Shivakumar. In comparison, the BJP is clearly a divided house with different factions working at cross purposes. It seems that the Congress has learnt its lesson from its suicidal strategies in Punjab, Uttarakhand and Goa where it could have won but lost badly. Its entire campaign is hingeing upon local issues; it is trying to counter the BJP’s religious narrative with the OBC politics of social justice. OBCs command approximately 26% of the state population. Rahul Gandhi has also supported a caste-based census. And in Siddaramiah the Congress has a tall OBC leader.

The RSS has always considered Karnataka as the gateway to south India. If the BJP loses then it will definitely be a setback to its operation “conquer Dravidland”. Tamil Nadu and Kerala are already out of its reach. It will dampen its chances in Telangana too. But the biggest loser will be the myth that Modi alone can win for the BJP. 

The writer is Editor, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B