India Reaches Out To Bangladesh Nationalist Party As Dhaka Politics Shift Away From Sheikh Hasina

New Delhi: Bangladesh watchers believe the recent Twitter/ X diplomacy between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Begum Khaleda Zia is a good bid by New Delhi to normalise ties with its neighbour. Smruti S Pattanaik, Research Fellow (SS) at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA) believes that Prime Minister Modi’s enquiry about the Bangladeshi leader’s health “would have gone down very well with the Bangladeshi public” and would have also helped end long-held rumours that India did not engage with the BNP.

“India has been engaging with the BNP for a long time. Former NSA Brajesh Mishra visited Dhaka to congratulate Begum Khaleda Zia on her electoral victory in 2001. She then visited India in 2012 where she received the redcarpet treatment. The question is not whether India wants to have a closer relationship with the BNP it is whether the BNP wants to have a closer relationship with India,” says Pattanaik. “The BNP has traditionally been very cautious given its constituency and Zia’s supporters were not very happy when she stated that ‘we should not look at our relationship with India in the rear-view mirror.’

The statement shows the BNP has been willing to engage, albeit with caution.” Bangladesh watchers also believe that Modi’s gesture was the best option for New Delhi right now. With former PM Sheikh Hasina in exile and out of active politics, and the interim government headed by Chief Adviser Mohammed Yunus—which has remained hostile to New Delhi—there are few players that India can actively engage with. Former High Commissioner to Bangladesh Riva Ganguly Das believes New Delhi needs to move on from Yunus, who has shown no eagerness to temper his anti-India statements and actions—the most notable of which has been sharing a book showing the northeastern states as part of Bangladesh.

“Yunus is extremely anti-Hasina and they have a long history of antipathy towards each other. Because Hasina is seen as India’s friend, that antipathy extends to India,” says Das. “He feels that he can play the China and Pakistan card against us, and he also believes that China can help reduce Bangladesh’s over-reliance on India.” While others argue that New Delhi should not be too quick to judge Yunus, as normal engagements have continued between the two sides—the most notable being the recent visit of Bangladesh NSA Khalilur Rahman to New Delhi for the Colombo Security Conclave (CSC) where he met his Indian counterpart, Ajit Doval—many concede that Yunus’s alliance with the Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh (JeIBD) does not inspire confidence.

One of his first acts as interim leader was to lift the ban on the party that had been barred from elections by the previous government. This is of great concern to India Former Indian High Commissioner to Bangladesh Pinak Chakravarty sums up the problem. “Bangladesh’s geography constricts the Siliguri Corridor, or ‘Chicken’s Neck,’ which connects the northeastern states of India to the rest of the country. This remains a strategic concern if Bangladesh provides opportunities to countries hostile to India,” he wrote in a news daily. “If Bangladesh provides military facilities to China along the Bay of Bengal, it will pose a dilemma and trigger options to counter those moves.”

Bangladesh watchers say India is understandably waiting for elections and will formulate options depending on who forms the next government. But Pattanaik believes the outreach to the BNP is necessary now given the fact that Hasina may not be in a position to contest elections due to her conviction by the International Crimes Tribunal. The Bangladesh Election Commission has also suspended the registration of the Awami League, effectively barring the party from contesting elections.

Says Pattanaik: “There is a lot of flux. Tarique Rahman (Begum Khaleda Zia’s son) has a big hold in the BNP but has yet to return from London. There is a new party, the National Citizens Party (NCP) and it is to be seen how much influence they have. The JeIBD is also looking to grow their influence. My feeling is if the Awami League does not contest and the BNP supporters vote wholeheartedly for the party, BNP should have a simple majority in the elections.”