Hormuz Traffic Could Return To Normal In 30 Days, Says Iran; US Indicates Diplomatic Progress

The US and Iran appear to be on the verge of a significant diplomatic breakthrough to bring their ongoing West Asian conflict to a close. Iranian officials have indicated that maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, a chokepoint handling roughly a fifth of the world's energy supply, could be restored to normal within a month of any agreement being reached.

The crisis began following joint American-Israeli strikes on Iran in late February, after which Tehran effectively shut down the strait, triggering a sharp rise in oil prices and a broader global energy crisis. The situation worsened when Washington imposed a naval blockade on Iranian ports.

Recent statements from both sides have rekindled optimism. Reports from Iranian and American sources indicate that negotiators are working on a memorandum of understanding that would establish a framework for ending hostilities, reopening the strait, and dismantling the naval blockade.

According to Axios, the proposed deal includes a 60-day ceasefire, freedom for Iran to sell oil internationally, and talks on limiting Iran's nuclear ambitions. Iran, for its part, is insisting on the full removal of the naval blockade and partial release of its frozen assets in the initial phase. Some sticking points remain, particularly around the nuclear issue.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio, speaking in New Delhi alongside India's External Affairs Minister S Jaishankar, hinted that a public announcement could come within hours, describing the prospect of "good news" for the world. The draft agreement, if approved by Iran's Supreme National Security Council and Supreme Leader Ayatollah Mojtaba Khamenei, would also include Iran's formal pledge never to develop nuclear weapons. In return, the US and its allies would commit to refraining from attacking Iran or its partners, while Iran would agree not to launch preemptive strikes against the US or its allies.