Monsoon 2026 Likely To Hit Andaman Early This Week; Major Relief Coming Soon As IMD Signals Early Onset

New Delhi: India’s southwest monsoon may arrive earlier than usual this year, with the India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasting its onset over parts of the south Bay of Bengal, the Andaman Sea and the Andaman & Nicobar Islands by the end of this week. If it materialises as predicted, the onset would be nearly five to six days ahead of the normal schedule.

According to the IMD, favourable atmospheric conditions have developed over the Bay of Bengal due to an active low-pressure area currently positioned over the southwest Bay. Weather officials said the system is likely to strengthen further over the next 48 hours, creating ideal conditions for the advancement of the monsoon.

In its latest daily weather bulletin issued on May 12, 2026, the IMD stated that the low-pressure area was observed over the southwest Bay of Bengal at 8:30 am, accompanied by a cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 kilometres above mean sea level.

“The low-pressure area over the southwest Bay of Bengal lay over the same region at 8.30 am today, the 12th May 2026, with the associated cyclonic circulation extending up to 4.5 km above mean sea level. It is likely to become more marked during the next 48 hours,” the IMD said.

The southwest monsoon generally reaches the Andaman and Nicobar Islands around May 20 every year before gradually progressing toward mainland India. Kerala, which marks the official onset of the monsoon season over the Indian mainland, usually receives the first monsoon showers around June 1.

An early onset over the Andaman region is often seen as the first major indicator of the monsoon’s overall progress across the country. Meteorologists say developments over the Bay of Bengal during May play a crucial role in shaping the pace of monsoon advancement toward the Indian coast.

However, despite the possibility of an early onset, the IMD has earlier forecast below-normal rainfall for India during the 2026 southwest monsoon season. According to the department’s estimates, the country is likely to receive around 80 cm of rainfall this year, lower than the long-period average of 87 cm recorded between 1971 and 2020.

Weather experts have linked the weaker rainfall outlook to evolving El Nino conditions over the equatorial Pacific Ocean. The IMD had stated earlier this month that ENSO-neutral conditions were gradually shifting toward El Nino, a climate phenomenon generally associated with reduced rainfall over India. The progress of the monsoon in the coming days will now be closely watched by farmers, state governments and weather agencies across the country.

Published on: Wednesday, May 13, 2026, 11:47 AM IST