India's Reported 'Non-Family Posting' Tag For Bangladesh Raises Diplomatic Concerns

New Delhi, Jan 22: India’s classification of Bangladesh as a “non-family” posting, reported in a section of the media, has surprised members of the diplomatic community in New Delhi. These reports have not been denied. This means that families of the diplomats are to leave Bangladesh, a drawdown of sorts.

While ties have worsened between the two nations after Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina fled Bangladesh, the removal of the families of diplomats from that country, which is yet to be confirmed by the MEA, would make for an unprecedented action.

Senior diplomats told FPJ that the government of India declares a nation a “non-family posting” only in extreme cases, and examples have included Yemen in 2015 and Afghanistan in 2021.

These were necessitated by an outbreak of civil war and an absence of government. This is not the case in Bangladesh, which is heading to elections on February 12, albeit under a transitional government.

Assessment and decision-making process

Diplomats told FPJ on background that the move would normally follow a careful assessment of the situation by the mission in Dhaka. The protocol is that the Indian High Commissioner provides a report with inputs based on assessment following interactions and inputs from various agencies to New Delhi, which would then be studied by the Joint Secretary (Personnel), who is responsible for the security of India’s missions.

This JS provides recommendations, and the matter is then taken up at the secretarial and ministerial level before a decision is reached. In the case of Bangladesh, which is considered a friendly country, much deliberation would have been done and, given the MEA’s silence, may still be ongoing.

Concerns over law and order

Senior diplomats and experts on Bangladesh say that the government’s decision will not be an easy one, as the removal of families of embassy officials suggests to the host country that there are problems with the law and order situation. However, many believe that India has good reasons to be worried.

“Bangladesh’s interim chief Muhammed Yunus has increased divisions in the country rather than bringing it together, suggesting that the election (scheduled for February 12) could be a bloody one, marked with much violence. Delhi will also factor in the Bangladesh police’s inability to quell protesters during the protests in 2024. Given this, India would probably have considered the need to withdraw families some time ago.”

Protests against India are nothing new. Former envoys to the country recall that Bangladeshi political leaders have routinely employed anti-India rhetoric by terming Bangladesh a “colony” of India.

Protests at the Indian High Commission are routine, and one protest went up to 7,000 people after the Indian government’s passing of the CAA. New Delhi has learned to live with this.

Rising rhetoric and street mobilisation

Yet, this time around the atmosphere is different. Bangladesh experts feel the interim government has done little to stop incendiary speech or actions, which make it easier for mobs to gather.

A senior diplomat pointed out, “Little action was taken by the government to stop mobs from gathering outside the offices of Daily Star or Prothom Alo, where journalists were subjected to chants of being ‘Indian dalals’. There was even a reported cow sacrifice carried out outside the two offices, after which no action was taken.”

Political players and fault lines

In the political ferment, while MEA sources confirm that New Delhi is engaging with all parties, they also say Delhi will have to deal with the “Islamisation” of Bangladesh. Analysts also point out that the Bangladesh Jamaat-e-Islami (JeI) feels that this is the tipping point when they have a chance of gaining power.

Experts say that the JeI is already running the country by putting their people in administrative and police posts. So, if any situation occurs where it feels it is losing ground, the JeI would be likely to turn to violence. The same is true of other parties like the National Citizens Party (NCP), which has stated it may not participate if conditions for a free and fair election are not met. So, if they feel that their political benefit lies in staying on in power and postponing elections, that too could lead to violence.

Also, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) leader Tarique Rahman has done little to calm the situation. A senior diplomat thinks the BNP’s past record has something to do with this.

“BNP is haunted by their government record in 2001–06 and are trying to get away from that image. So, they are being over-cautious because they don’t want to rock the boat. They feel that somehow let’s just continue with this situation. Let him (Yunus) give an election. Anyway, we are going to come to power.”

Regional dimension

Finally, Pakistan’s outreach to Dhaka has muddied the waters further: in the seventeen months, the ISI has made significant inroads into Bangladesh, which could also play the China card against India as well.