Axis My India Predicts Neck And Neck Contest Between TVK & DMK-INC Alliance; Vijay's Party To Win 98-120 Seats

The India Today-Axis My India exit poll for the Tamil Nadu Legislative Assembly election 2026 signals a dramatic shift in Tamil Nadu’s political landscape, projecting a neck-and-neck contest between actor Vijay’s TVK and the DMK-led alliance.

Seat Projection (Axis My India):

TVK: 98–120

DMK+ alliance: 92–110

AIADMK+ alliance: 22–32

With both TVK and DMK hovering around the majority mark in the 234-member Assembly, the poll points to a potential cliffhanger result.

Vote Share Tie Adds To Uncertainty

The survey further indicates that TVK and DMK are nearly tied in vote share at around 35% each. This parity underscores a highly competitive contest and suggests that even small swings could determine the final outcome.

Vijay’s TVK Disrupts Dravidian Stronghold

TVK’s strong showing in its debut election marks a significant disruption to Tamil Nadu’s traditional bipolar politics dominated by DMK and AIADMK alliances. Contesting across most constituencies, Vijay’s party appears to have rapidly converted popularity into electoral traction.

Other Exit Polls Tell A Different Story

In contrast, other agencies project a more conventional outcome:

People’s Pulse estimates DMK at 125–145 seats, AIADMK+ at 65–80, and TVK at just 2–6 seats

Matrize projects DMK+ at 122–132, AIADMK+ at 80–100, and TVK between 0–6 seats

These projections sharply differ from Axis My India’s findings, highlighting the uncertainty around TVK’s actual impact.

High Voter Turnout Across Tamil Nadu

Tamil Nadu recorded strong voter participation, with districts like Karur (89.32%), Salem (88.02%), and Erode (87.59%) leading the charts. Even urban centres like Chennai saw a notable turnout of 81.34%.

According to the Election Commission of India, overall voter turnout touched 82.24% by 5 PM, with polling across all 234 constituencies concluding at 6 PM.

Cliffhanger Or Comeback?

While most exit polls favour the DMK-led alliance, Axis My India’s projection introduces the possibility of a historic upset, with TVK emerging as a serious contender. With both alliances near the majority mark, Tamil Nadu could be headed for a nail-biting finish when votes are counted.