Iran-Israel Conflict Escalates, How Worsening Tensions Could Affect India's Imports & Exports

The rising tension between Iran and Israel could affect the whole world, especially if shipping routes are blocked and energy prices rise. For countries like India and China, the effect may not be limited to oil alone.

According to Moneycontrol, both Iran and Israel count India, China, Turkey, Germany, and Italy among their top 10 trade partners. For India, trade with Iran has changed a lot since 2014. In 2015, India was Iran’s second-largest trade partner after China, with trade worth USD 5.7 billion. But by 2023, India dropped to sixth place.

A past analysis by Moneycontrol showed that after the U.S. re-imposed sanctions on Iran in 2019, India’s imports from Iran fell by 87 percent. In the same period, India’s exports to Iran also dropped by 68 percent. Still, in 2023, India was Iran’s third-largest importer—behind China and Turkey, but ahead of Pakistan.

India-Israel Trade Has Grown Since 2014

On the other hand, India’s trade with Israel has grown since 2014. Back then, India was Israel’s 10th-largest trade partner. By 2024, India moved up to fifth place. China remains Israel’s second-biggest trade partner.

When it comes to Israeli exports, India moved from the 8th position in 2014 to 6th in 2024. In terms of imports, India moved up from 10th to 5th position.

Moneycontrol reports that apart from electrical machines, weapons and ammunition have become a major part of India-Israel trade. In the last 10 years, arms trade grew 33 times and reached USD 185 million in 2024.

Situation Changed After 2023

After 2023, India’s total trade with Israel has declined. It is now almost half compared to 2022. This is due to the ongoing war after the Hamas attack on Israel on October 7.

Despite disruptions, smartphone exports stayed strong. Even though total trade with both countries fell, India’s export of electrical items (mainly smartphones) increased. In 2024, smartphone exports to Iran grew by 25 percent and to Israel by 18 percent.

Conflict Escalated on June 14

Tension rose further on June 14 when Iran launched a drone attack on Israel. This came a day after Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear sites and killed top military commanders and nuclear scientists.

Israel said these attacks will continue in the coming weeks to remove threats to its existence. Iran has promised to respond strongly.