India’s FY26 Growth May Near 7%, Beat RBI’s 6.7% Forecast: RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta

India’s economic growth could come close to 7% in the financial year ending March, exceeding the Reserve Bank of India’s current 6.7% projection, RBI Deputy Governor Poonam Gupta said on Thursday.

Speaking at an event at the Madras School of Economics in Chennai, Gupta attributed the more optimistic outlook to expectations of a strong April-June quarter.

Official GDP figures for the quarter are scheduled to be released later this month, with economists currently forecasting growth between 6.9% and 8%.

Strong growth despite economic headwinds

Gupta’s assessment highlights the resilience of the Indian economy despite several challenges, including an inadequate monsoon and elevated energy costs. She also indicated that growth could remain robust in the longer term, saying India should aim for an annual growth rate of around 7.5% or higher.

Her comments come after the minutes of the RBI’s August monetary policy meeting showed that she had raised the possibility of an interest-rate increase later this year. The stronger-than-expected economic momentum could provide the central bank with greater room to focus on inflation risks.

India’s economic outlook has also become more positive as concerns surrounding the impact of the Iran conflict have eased. Strong domestic growth has reinforced the government’s longer-term ambition of transforming India into a developed economy by 2047.

Foreign inflows could strengthen external position

Gupta also expressed confidence about India’s external accounts, suggesting that the outlook could become considerably more favourable.

Economists expect India’s balance of payments to move into surplus during the current financial year, reversing earlier expectations of a deficit. The improvement is partly linked to the possibility of substantial foreign capital inflows.

India could attract as much as $80 billion in foreign inflows, supported by measures aimed at stabilising the rupee, including incentives designed to encourage foreign-currency deposits.

The stronger growth outlook could nevertheless need to be sustained for many years to meet India’s 2047 development ambitions. Economists estimate that achieving developed-economy status may require growth of more than 8% annually for at least two decades, making sustained investment, productivity gains and economic reforms crucial.