Headwind, Not A Hurricane: Why India’s Solar Sector Can Weather 126% US Duties

The announcement by the Trump administration to set preliminary duties of 126 per cent on solar imports from India has triggered significant volatility in the renewable energy sector. While the US Commerce Department determined these levies were necessary to offset unfair subsidies, the industry views the subsequent market turbulence as an overreaction.

Sandip Gandhi, Founder and CEO of Consocia Energy, argues that "the market's near-panic reaction overstates the structural damage to India's solar ecosystem."

While the duties certainly create a new barrier, the foundational strength of India’s energy transition suggests the sector is better equipped to handle this shift than the headline numbers might imply.

Contextualising India’s role in the US supply chain

To understand the actual impact, it is essential to look at the volume of trade involved. Despite a sharp nine-fold increase in value since 2022, India remains a secondary player compared to other exporters.

Gandhi puts this into perspective with three critical numbers: "India's share of US solar imports is approximately 11per cent, up from 3per cent in 2022, still modest compared to Vietnam's 36per cent."

This highlights that while the growth was rapid, India’s exposure is not as absolute as some fear. Furthermore, the action is part of a broader "supply chain reshoring agenda" rather than a targeted strike, as Gandhi notes that "the US has simultaneously imposed duties of 86–143per cent on Indonesia and 81% on Laos," following previous rounds against other Southeast Asian nations.

Resilience of domestic demand and manufacturing

A key factor often overlooked in the face of export hurdles is the massive scale of India's internal market.

Gandhi tells The Free Press Journal that "India's domestic solar market added a record 36.6 GW in 2025, a 43per cent jump, with cumulative capacity now exceeding 140 GW and a 191 GW pipeline." This domestic hunger for solar energy provides a robust safety net for manufacturers.

Additionally, the infrastructure for self-reliance has matured significantly, with Gandhi noting that "indigenous module manufacturing capacity under the ALMM framework has reached 144 GW per annum, nearly doubling in a single year." This means "the domestic absorption capacity for any diverted export volumes is substantial."

Strategic diversification and 'China Plus One' advantage

Indian manufacturers have already proven their ability to handle the situation when faced with protectionist policies.

Recalling the August 2025 cumulative 50per cent tariff, Gandhi observes that "companies did not merely absorb the blow — they diversified."

Leading firms are now expanding their footprints into Europe, the Middle East and Africa. By positioning themselves as a reliable alternative to China, Indian solar companies maintain "market optionality that headline tariff numbers do not capture."

This geographical flexibility, combined with the fact that these are preliminary duties with a final determination due July 6, suggests a path forward.

As Gandhi says, "We view this as a headwind, not a hurricane. India's solar sector has the manufacturing depth, domestic demand momentum, and diversification strategy to navigate this with resilience."

Published on: Wednesday, February 25, 2026, 06:32 PM IST