After El Nino, will monsoon's delayed arrival affect food production and prices?

With erratic rains, heat waves and extreme conditions, climate change is expected to wipe out global food production by 9 per cent in the next 20 years. The weather phenomenon El Nino has already affected production by triggering high temperatures from February itself, and now it is set to affect the southwest monsoon, which impacts 90 per cent of India's total rainfall.

The monsoon which first arrives at the coast of Malabar in Kerala, is expected to be delayed, as the Indian Meteorological Department predicts that it will start from June 4 this year.

Can it affect food prices?

IMD's assertion comes shortly after Skymet also pointed out the possibility of a delayed monsoon, and the prediction could be off by four days more of less.

The state-run organisation uses a statistical model which delivers forecasts based on six parameters including temperatures in north west India, pre-monsoon rainfalls in the south and long-wave radiation.

Apart from the delay IMD has also predicted that monsoons will be weak this year, which could affect food production adversely.

Major cause for concern?

Previously, IMD had mentioned that rainfall this year will be normal at 96 per cent of the Long Period Average, although next year it is expected to fall below normal.

Despite a poor start, well distributed rains during the monsoon, can ensure high agricultural production.

The output from farms will be a key factor, at a time when easing food prices have helped keep inflation below the RBI's tolerance level for two straight months.