The Nitish Puzzle Has Made Bihar Election Interesting

The Bihar assembly elections are reaching their crescendo. There is tremendous interest all across as to who will win the elections and who will form the government once the results are announced. As of now, no one is in a position to declare a clear winner. It’s really credible that even after almost 20 years in power, the NDA is in contention and is fighting hard to retain power. But the biggest enigma of this election is Chief Minister Nitish Kumar; till the time of writing, it is not certain if he will be the chief minister of the NDA if it manages to win the election. The BJP is not willing to commit, and Amit Shah, during his visit, has said that the MLAs will choose their leader after the election results are out. Why this ambiguity? Can this mean that the BJP is not willing to make him the CM if the NDA wins again? Or, is it a strategic silence to make the BJP voters hopeful that this time the CM will be from their own party? Why should it not be assumed that the BJP has decided to dump Nitish and, for the first time, wants to anoint its own candidate?

I think Bihar has had enough of Mandal stalwarts. Lalu Yadav ruled Bihar for 15 years, and after him, Nitish Kumar carried the Mandal politics forward for another two decades. 35 years is too long a time to look for an alternative and search for a fresh face who can bring real change in Bihar. There is no doubt that, despite all kinds of accusations, Lalu Yadav was the first among Mandal stalwarts who realised the potential of Mandal politics, which became synonymous with the politics of social justice. Lalu Yadav can be faulted for many things when he was at the helm of affairs, but it is he who gave a voice to the voiceless in Bihar. Bihar’s politics and society were, and still are, deeply entrenched in a feudal mindset, and before him, it was unimaginable to think that an OBC leader would lead the state government. Upper castes were too powerful, and it was difficult to imagine that the soldiers of social justice would have a workable relationship with them. After Lalu Yadav, Nitish Kumar tried to add a new dimension to Mandal politics. He tried to combine social justice with development. In his first term as CM, he not only improved the law and order situation in Bihar but also made serious attempts in the fields of girl education and empowerment and tried to improve medical infrastructure in Bihar. He was no reformer, but girl students with bicycles became his biggest mascots and symbols of change in Bihar, but his next 15 years turned out to be disappointing.

Twenty years is a long time in politics and life, but Bihar under him did not improve tremendously. Bihar is still the most underdeveloped state in India, with the lowest per capita income. The caste census, carried out by his regime, paints a very dim picture of his rule. According to the caste census report, which was made public in 2022, Bihar has the privilege of having only 4% of households with a monthly income of more than Rs 50 thousand. Only 6% of people are graduates, and approximately 96% of people don’t own any vehicle. Only .13% had tractors. These are horrifying data, and Nitish Kumar has no option but to take the responsibility.

But Nitish Kumar is still in contention. He has grown old, and it is widely speculated that he does not keep well, and his mental health is also rumoured to be not very good. His party is also in shambles. It is speculated that a section of the party leadership is deeply influenced by the BJP. It is not by accident that the JDU is reluctant to give a ticket to Muslim candidates in this election. The JDU, which in the 2010 elections contested 133 seats and won 110, is now ready to leave the tag of big brother in the NDA and is happy to contest the same number of seats (101) as the BJP. In the 2020 election, the JDU had the worst performance with 43 seats, and it was widely speculated that the BJP was instrumental behind the JDU’s reduced seat numbers.

In this election, Nitish Kumar is at his most vulnerable. The BJP would like to have its own chief minister, and if it is working on this strategy, then there is nothing wrong. After supporting Nitish for 20 years, the BJP has every right to demand Nitish’s support for its candidate as CM. In North India, Bihar is the only state where the BJP has never had its own government. Therefore, the BJP can’t be faulted if it gets ambitious and dreams about the CM post. Amit Shah’s non-commitment on the issue is a pointer that Nitish Kumar probably has played his last innings in Bihar politics.

But it will be a huge mistake to underestimate Nitish. He is a master politician who, despite the JDU never having a majority on its own in the Bihar assembly, has successfully remained at the helm. He is the most pragmatic politician in Indian politics who has never shackled himself with any kind of ideology. He once was a very strong and vocal critic of Narendra Modi and broke alliance with the BJP once Modi was appointed the prime ministerial face in 2014, but once he realised that Modi was the reality of Indian politics, he broke alliance with Lalu Yadav and formed a government with the BJP. He shook hands with Lalu Yadav twice, and every time he went back to the BJP. Therefore, the Nitish Kumar riddle might unfold a new chapter in Bihar politics after the election.

The writer is Co-Founder, SatyaHindi.com, and author of Hindu Rashtra. He tweets at @ashutosh83B