It’s Not Party's Revival But Survival That Is Now The Priority For Thackerays

Last week, Maharashtra politics saw a somewhat expected sequence of events. Expected, yet shocking for many, especially the first political family of Mumbai—the Thackerays. As reported by the regional news media, six members of the Lok Sabha of the Shiv Sena (UBT) faction suddenly became 'non-reachable' for days. Speculation was rife over exactly what was happening, and then came the sudden announcement of them quitting the Shiv Sena (UBT) and joining the rival Shiv Sena faction led by Maharashtra Deputy CM Eknath Shinde.

The high-profile spokesperson of Shiv Sena (UBT), Rajya Sabha MP Sanjay Raut, first looked confused about what the MPs were up to and then quickly turned aggressive against them in his communication with the media, even hurling abuses at them publicly. By the beginning of this week, it had become clear that the six MPs had decided to join the Shinde group and would be sitting with the ruling party in Parliament in the upcoming monsoon session.

Never in its 60-year-old history did the Shiv Sena (UBT) look so vulnerable and weak as it does now. This raises many questions as to how Uddhav Thackeray and his son, Aditya, will keep their flock together in the state Assembly as well as the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation in the coming months or years.

A Party Built On Emotion

The Shiv Sena, traditionally, has always been a party which runs more on emotions than any other factor. Emotional speeches, emotional editorials in the party mouthpiece Saamana and emotional appeals by party founder Balasaheb Thackeray inspired crores of Shiv Sainiks, and they worked ahead of elections, putting their heart and soul into the campaign.

"Betrayal" was always considered the "worst crime" in the Shiv Sena. Any party member quitting and joining some other political outfit was looked at as a traitor or "gaddar". However, the stigma attached to this so-called betrayal seems to have vanished in the past few days, considering that it is for the second time in the past four years that elected representatives have suddenly formed a group with a two-thirds majority and crossed over to the rival side.

Eknath Shinde did it for the first time in June 2022 when he walked away with 40 Shiv Sena MLAs, and now he has done it with six more MPs of the UBT group. Many say the success Shinde got in the Assembly polls of 2024 has made him, his party and the six defectors from the UBT faction confident of doing the same again without facing any public backlash in the long run.

Shinde Emerges Stronger

What the six MPs have done is going to change a lot of things in Maharashtra. The opposition Maha Vikas Aghadi, comprising the Congress, the NCP (SP) and the Shiv Sena (UBT), has received a massive jolt with this rebellion. In the 2024 Lok Sabha polls, the MVA had won 31 out of 48 seats, indicating that the revival of the opposition was possible in the Lok Sabha.

Now six out of these 31 MPs have joined the BJP-led NDA, tilting the balance to some extent in favour of the BJP. This is going to empower Deputy Chief Minister Eknath Shinde majorly because he now has 13 members in the Lok Sabha and 57 members of his own in the state Assembly, clearly making him the second-largest political force in Maharashtra after the BJP.

In fact, Shinde's Lok Sabha numbers are now higher than the number of seats the BJP had won in Maharashtra. The first takeaway from the developments of last week is the empowerment of Eknath Shinde. The buzz now is about Shinde's party getting one more Cabinet berth in the Union government.

Uncertainty For The Thackerays

The second takeaway is, of course, the uncertainty over the political future of the Thackerays. These defections have made the Thackerays weak, and this is perhaps the second blow this year for them after their inability to win the BMC polls despite getting into a seat-sharing alliance with Raj Thackeray's Maharashtra Navnirman Sena earlier this year.

What makes things worse is the buzz that a similar split may be seen among the Shiv Sena (UBT) MLAs. Shiv Sena (UBT) currently has 20 MLAs in the Maharashtra Assembly, and there is speculation that some of them will likely walk away from the party just like the six MPs did last week.

Eknath Shinde claimed before the media that what Maharashtra saw unfolding last week was "only the trailer of a movie". If indeed two-thirds of the MLAs decide to walk away from Shiv Sena (UBT) in the coming weeks or months, it could spell doomsday for Uddhav’s party. If a split happens, it will also tilt the balance of power very oddly in favour of the ruling Mahayuti in the Maharashtra Assembly.

Challenges Ahead For Uddhav

Shiv Sena (UBT) Chief Uddhav Thackeray put up a brave face at the foundation day rally held in Mumbai. "Some traitors leaving us and joining others for selfish goals will not affect us. We have faced many challenges in the past, and we will face new challenges in the future and come out as winners," Uddhav said at the rally amidst applause.

However, it is easier said than done. Many in the Shiv Sena have been complaining about Uddhav and Aditya Thackeray being too accessible and too inactive, even during the civic polls as well as district council polls conducted earlier this year. Overall, the Thackerays are set to face steep challenges in the coming months.

Rohit Chandavarkar is a senior journalist who has worked for 31 years with various leading newspaper brands and television channels in Mumbai and Pune.

Published on: Tuesday, June 23, 2026, 08:50 PM IST