BRICS Must Support Global South To Keep UNFCCC Alive

The UNFCCC was adopted in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, and its Conference of Parties (COP) returns to Belem in Brazil later this month. In stark contrast to 1992, when no country was against recognising the challenge of climate change, we now have the administration of the largest cumulative emitter of carbon dioxide since industrialisation, the United States, denouncing climate change as a hoax.

The US, for long, has been a naysayer at the UNFCCC on obligations and commitments but now has, for a second time, pulled out of the Paris Agreement adopted in 2015, with President Trump calling climate change “the greatest con job ever perpetrated”.

That the climate change negotiations are in reality about limiting use of fossil fuels, which still remain the bulwark of economic power, means that in his scheme, the US will not allow itself to be limited to lose the fossil fuel advantages it enjoys, no matter the consequences. Alternatively, he recognises the fossil fuel bonanza to only have a limited time and sees no reason to give it up before alternate technologies and fuels tip the economic balance.

His administration playing disrupter at Belem shouldn’t, therefore, be taken lightly by the world—and, yes, the best would be their staying away. Let us, however, remember that the US hasn’t pulled out of the UNFCCC itself, and even the Paris Agreement withdrawal is still to come into effect. But climate change is a bugbear for them, unlike some other aspects of multilateralism, especially the UN, which provides the President a pulpit for pushing his world views. It bears noting that at a recent IMO meeting on Net Zero in shipping, the US even went to the extent of browbeating countries not to agree to targets.

To make matters worse, the Europeans, who project themselves as climate champions, are now pulling back on their own climate ambitions. Some people also feel that the negotiations are becoming a ‘tamasha’, as was witnessed at the Dubai COP in 2023, with a huge expo. Others fear that too much space is given to fossil fuel producers, with the last three COPs having been hosted by major oil-producing countries. And yet others clamour for doing away with COPs and having a standing UNFCCC, also with consensus to be dropped and resolutions instead being voted upon.

And now Bill Gates has jumped in, stating that global warming shouldn’t be the highest of global priorities; instead, the focus should be on health and prosperity, focusing on inequity more than a long-term existential issue for which we must seek technological solutions. True, though for good reason, regulation has always been integral to human endeavour when faced with issues facing human lives on a large scale since one can’t simply wait for discovery but must act, in whichever way possible, before it’s too late. Indeed, as COVID hit the world, lockdowns were initiated even as the search for vaccines was stepped up.

The World Bank has also shifted its focus from sustainability to employment. Indeed, with the developed world hesitant, real monies, not platitudes, do not appear realistic at Belem even though several countries recently agreed to push for USD 1 trillion and more finance through MDBs.

Overall, no matter the critical importance of employment and health, the fact that these shifts appeal to President Trump can’t be overlooked. And the UNFCCC better be aware of these disruptive ideas.

Given all these headwinds, including President Trump’s animus towards President Lula, Brazil has rightly chosen to focus on implementation and not newer commitments. And they are taking a diplomatic way, choosing to vest the COP presidency in veteran multilateralist Andre do Lago, who was earlier Brazil’s Ambassador to India.

The global south, on the other hand, needs success at Belem, including ensuring that climate negotiations continue in a multilateral framework. This is bolstered by the advisory opinion of the ICJ that recognised the global threat of climate change with a legal obligation for countries to mitigate this huge challenge.

The intersection of climate and trade has become another major issue, with many in the global south seeing climate-related trade actions, such as the EU’s CBAM (Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism), as non-tariff barriers doing away with differentiated treatment for developing countries envisaged under the UNFCCC. Brazil seeks ways to work on such issues as flagship initiatives at Belem. As of now, their ideas on trade and climate have been met with a degree of hesitation by the South, while the EU certainly, and possibly even the Chinese, are positively inclined. Given the Brazilian push and the key imperative for some success at Belem and to keep multilateral negotiations on climate change going, it would appear useful for the BRICS to join the conversations while negotiating guardrails to safeguard their development imperatives.

The BRICS, as the largest countries in the South, also have not only an obligation but a vested interest in adding their heft to the global south’s interest in keeping the UNFCCC alive and kicking. With the US out and Europe ambivalent, for India there is the additional geopolitical utility of the BRICS involvement to stymie the Chinese from assuming global leadership on climate change and adding to their reach out to the South.

Moreover, while prima facie India, seen by the developed world as a naysayer on mitigation at the UNFCCC, may find ideas of Gates God-sent, as they seem to provide carbon space for growth, these in reality absolve the developed countries from climate commitments, including on finance, while the global south, India included, is seeing increasing vulnerability to climate change.

For India, a collaborative global action on climate change is also key to the pursuance of its twin goals of Viksit Bharat by 2047 and Net Zero by 2070. The multilateral negotiations continuing are also imperative, with India having announced, at the level of the Prime Minister, an interest in hosting the COP in 2028, apart from holding the BRICS presidency in 2026.

Former Indian Ambassador to the EU & Former lead negotiator for India at UNFCCC Distinguished Fellow, TERI.