Bihar Elections 2025: Prashant Kishor’s Jan Suraaj Faces Tough Reality As Nitish, Tejashwi Battle For Power

As Bihar gears up to elect its 18th Legislative Assembly, the state’s political cauldron is once again simmering with speculation and intrigue. Will the ruling alliance secure yet another term, or will the opposition finally manage to wrest power? And beyond these familiar questions lies a more tantalising one—who will become Bihar’s next chief minister?

The opposition Mahagathbandhan, contesting this election under the banner of INDIA, a much-touted but ultimately floundering acronym adopted ahead of the 2024 general elections, has finally declared Tejashwi Yadav, heir to the Rashtriya Janata Dal (RJD) legacy, as its chief ministerial face.

On the other side, the ruling National Democratic Alliance (NDA) continues to hedge its bets, asserting that it is contesting under the leadership of the incumbent chief minister, Nitish Kumar—without explicitly committing that the 73-year-old political veteran will indeed serve another term. Kumar already holds the distinction of being Bihar’s longest-serving chief minister, and fatigue, both political and personal, has begun to show.

Yet, amid this familiar political theatre, one figure stands out as the biggest unresolved riddle of the 2025 elections—Prashant Kishor, or PK, the master strategist who once orchestrated stunning victories for others but now struggles to script one for himself. Once feted for his uncanny ability to predict seat tallies with surgical precision, PK’s own political journey has taken a turn that few would have anticipated.

Kishor’s prediction that his fledgling party, Jan Suraaj, would either win more than 150 seats or fewer than 10 in the 243-member Assembly sounded more like a joke than psephology. “No pollster,” quipped a rival, “keeps a margin of error that wide unless he’s guessing, not forecasting.”

For three years, PK has trekked across the length and breadth of Bihar, walking hundreds of kilometres in his attempt to connect with people and understand their aspirations. His “padyatra” drew crowds and curiosity, fuelling expectations that he was preparing to disrupt Bihar’s entrenched caste-based politics. But as the election drew closer, the movement seemed to lose its early energy. A series of tactical missteps and contradictory decisions ensured that Kishor’s prophecy of winning fewer than ten seats now looks dangerously close to coming true.

To begin with, his hesitation to formalise Jan Suraaj into a structured political organisation cost him precious time. By the time the polls approached, he was scrambling to attract candidates and volunteers. His decision to welcome defectors from other parties—many joining purely for ticket opportunities—eroded his carefully cultivated image of being “different”. The final blow came when he dramatically withdrew from contesting the election at the eleventh hour, undermining his credibility just when his movement needed symbolic leadership.

The irony is sharp. A decade ago, Kishor had crafted Arvind Kejriwal’s audacious challenge to three-time Delhi Chief Minister Sheila Dikshit in the 2013 elections—a David-versus-Goliath battle that AAP famously won. PK’s strategic brilliance then catapulted Kejriwal to power. This time, however, when Kishor announced that he would contest against Tejashwi Yadav from the latter’s home turf of Raghopur in Vaishali district, the political stage was set for another bold confrontation. He even addressed a rally there, confidently predicting Tejashwi’s defeat. But before long, he backed out, citing his party’s “collective decision” that he should remain focused on steering the campaign instead of contesting himself.

The retreat was widely interpreted as a sign of nervousness—an admission that he was uncertain of victory in a Yadav-dominated constituency. His critics accused him of lacking the courage of conviction. Supporters tried to spin it as strategic restraint. Either way, the episode punctured Jan Suraaj’s momentum before it had properly begun.

Kishor had intended to highlight the lack of development in Raghopur, despite the area having elected Lalu Prasad Yadav, Rabri Devi, and Tejashwi Yadav over the years. Yet, by backing away, he inadvertently reinforced the perception that caste remains the ultimate determinant in Bihar’s politics. Jan Suraaj’s central message—that voters should rise above caste loyalties and prioritise governance and jobs—was instantly diluted.

Adding to his troubles was his decision to field candidates in the December 2024 Assembly by-elections, where Jan Suraaj contested four seats and lost all, finishing a distant third or fourth. The experiment, intended to test the party’s organisational strength, instead backfired spectacularly. It convinced voters and analysts alike that Jan Suraaj was not a serious contender in the upcoming polls.

Initially, PK had banked on the youth vote, believing that his message of merit and modernisation would resonate with Bihar’s restless younger population. But as of now, no clear evidence suggests that the youth have rallied behind him. In fact, the young electorate appears fragmented and disengaged, adding yet another unpredictable layer to Bihar’s already complex electoral calculus.

In recent months, Kishor’s tone has grown more cautious. He now acknowledges that building a credible political force is a long-term project, announcing that he will continue to strengthen Jan Suraaj for the 2030 Assembly elections instead. The admission reflects a rare moment of realism from a man long known for grand designs and quick turnarounds. “Castles,” he quipped recently, “must be built on the ground, not in the air.”

Even his critics agree that Bihar could benefit from a reformist voice like Kishor’s—someone capable of articulating a vision that transcends caste arithmetic and patronage politics. Yet, the past two years have shown that being a backroom strategist is very different from being a mass leader. Directors who shine behind the camera do not always deliver compelling performances in front of it.

The 2025 Bihar elections are shaping up as a familiar contest between old rivals, but Kishor’s experiment adds a fascinating subplot. Whether Jan Suraaj wins ten seats or two, its emergence has at least reopened debate on issues long buried under caste and coalition calculations—development, employment, and governance.

For Kishor himself, the journey from war room to crossroads may prove his sternest test yet. His reputation as the man who made others win is no longer enough. In Bihar’s rough and tumble, where charisma must be matched with commitment and caste still trumps reform, Prashant Kishor stands at the crossroads of reinvention and irrelevance. The next few weeks will decide which path he takes.

Ajay Jha is a senior journalist, author and political commentator.

Published on: Monday, October 27, 2025, 08:18 PM IST