Iran Could Expand War To Indian Ocean In Response To Fresh US Attack: Khamenei Adviser

Iran could widen the geographical scope of the war to the Indian Ocean if the United States launches another attack, Yahya Rahim Safavi, a senior adviser to Iran’s Supreme Leader, has warned amid heightened tensions between Tehran and Washington.

Iran Warns Of Wider Conflict

“Since the conflict has spread from the Persian Gulf and Strait of Hormuz to the Red Sea, it is possible that, in response to more war, the front will expand even further, reaching the Indian Ocean and perhaps beyond,” Safavi said in a video released by Iran’s Fars news agency.

His remarks come amid tensions between Iran and the US around the Persian Gulf, Gulf of Oman and important maritime trade routes. Iranian officials have warned that renewed US military action could trigger retaliation against American interests and assets in the region.

On Monday, Iran’s Revolutionary Guard also warned that it could change its weapons, military tactics and targets if the conflict escalated further.

Why The Indian Ocean Matters

The Indian Ocean is the third-largest of the world’s five oceanic divisions, covering about 70.5 million square kilometres, or roughly 20% of the Earth’s water surface. Asia, including India, Iran, Pakistan and Bangladesh, lies to its north.

A crucial link to the Indian Ocean is the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, which connects the Red Sea to the Gulf of Aden. Shipping through the waterway has already faced disruption amid attacks and increased security concerns.

Pressure has also mounted on the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow passage connecting the Persian Gulf to the Gulf of Oman. The waterways have emerged as key flashpoints in the wider conflict and disruptions have affected global energy shipments.

Only 17 commodity vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz over the weekend, compared with 37 in the previous week and a pre-war average of about 125 vessels a day, according to the information cited in the report. Traffic through Bab el-Mandeb also declined.

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What An Expansion Could Mean For India

Any further disruption extending towards the Indian Ocean could have consequences beyond the Gulf because the region is a major route for energy supplies and commercial shipping to and from Asia.

India, at the northern end of the Indian Ocean, has extensive maritime trade links with the Gulf region, Africa and Southeast Asia. A wider conflict could therefore increase risks to shipping, insurance, energy supplies and regional trade.

The US-Iran war has already affected India through higher oil, LPG and shipping costs. Disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have pushed up crude oil prices, increasing India’s import bill and putting pressure on the rupee. India imports more than 88% of its crude oil, making it vulnerable to disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.

Brent crude crossed $100 a barrel in September, while India’s crude basket averaged about $102.11 a barrel, compared with $90.19 in August and $82.04 in July.