Bye Bye Bayrou – French PM Likely To Be Ousted

Paris: France could well be without a government for the second time on 8 September. François Bayrou, French Prime Minister since December 2024, will face the confidence vote next week and he is all set to lose. For an experienced politician who spent over three decades within the corridors of political power, his rise to Matignon, the PM’s office was a beautiful culmination of a legendary career. But in the polarized political climate of the day, it has become a poisoned chalice.

Bayrou came into office with a clear remit from President Emmanuel Macron: to put France's out-of-control public debt back in check. "France's debt increases by €5,000 every second," he reminded the country recently. His 2026 budget proposal foresees savings of over €43 billion, including halting social benefits despite inflation increasing, reducing state spending, closing loopholes for tax avoidance, applying solidarity contributions to the wealthy, and lucratively eliminating two bank holidays.

To Bayrou, these draconian measures are a regrettable necessity to prevent a "Greek-style" debt crisis. To many French electors, however, they are a manifestation of war on cherished social welfare and national traditions. Responses have been immediate and toxic, pointing out precisely how difficult—if not impossible—it is to attempt to reform France's welfare system. Bayrou's isolation in parliament is stark. From the far left to the far right, nearly every major party has pledged to vote out of office his government. La France Insoumise, the Socialists, the Greens, the Communists, and Le Pen’s National Rally (RN) have each said they will stand against him. His removal is almost certain.

Macron, whose choice to dissolve parliament in 2024 following his party's loss in the European elections continues to haunt him, has ruled out a second dissolution. Speculation, however, now surrounds Bayrou's probable successor. Defence minister Sébastien Lecornu and Justice minister Gérald Darmanin are two of the likely contenders. Whoever fills the spot, will however, face the same broken National Assembly where a budget would be impossible to pass without facing a second motion of censure.

The danger is that France could stumble into an "American-style shutdown" if the 2025 budget is rejected outright — an occurrence which would increase public outrage and lower world confidence in French leadership. Even with glum prospects, Bayrou will not give up the ghost. In the past week, he has toned down his language, suggesting that reducing two public holidays may be on the backburner. He has also attempted to diffuse criticism that he was disproportionately dumping the debt on "boomers," insisting instead that older generations should support reforms out of affection for their children and grandchildren.

Meanwhile, Macron's own authority is slowly fading. More and more seen as a lame duck, he risks being overshadowed by populist challengers. On the left, Jean-Luc Mélenchon promotes an anti-austerity agenda. On the right, Jordan Bardella, the youthful leader of the RN, is being set up as the voice of change. Recent opinion polls suggest that if another round of elections were called, the RN and its allies would win 31% of votes, strengthening their position even in the absence of a dissolution.

The crisis is not confined to parliament. Anti-EU plot activist movements and others tasked with propagating Russian-linked disinformation are calling for nationwide blockades from September 10. Social unrest will follow closely on the heels of the political instability. A couple of years ago, Macron made the remark that France was "a country that hates reforms." Now his statement rings truer than ever. Exhaustion of reform, parliamentary gridlock, and populist forces have all contributed to causing France to hang in the balance.

Whether Bayrou lives or dies the confidence vote, France's deeper malaise is apparent: a nation torn between fiscal conservatism and resistance to austerity among voters. The PM’s doomsday death may be around the corner, but France's leadership crisis has only just begun.