Super El Niño Set To Return In India! How It May Impact The Country's Weather And Agriculture?

Many parts of North India are already witnessing the monsoon, which is active in many states of the country, including Delhi-NCR, Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh and more. In some states, heavy rains are causing flood-like conditions. But soon the monsoon may turn sour, and the scorching heat may once again trouble people.

Weather agencies around the world are issuing alerts regarding El Niño once again. According to the US weather agency NOAA and Columbia University's IRI, a very serious warning regarding the weather around the world has been issued. According to them, Super El Niño has become fully active in the Pacific Ocean and the impact of it will continue till the early months of next year.

Super El Niño in India?

Climate experts have indicated that El Niño conditions are likely to develop after India's southwest monsoon season, raising concerns about their possible impact on the country's weather patterns, agriculture and water resources in the months ahead. While the 2026 monsoon is expected to continue under neutral conditions, the emergence of El Niño later in the year could influence winter rainfall and the next agricultural cycle.

Godzilla El Niño

According to NOAA, there's an 81% chance this El Niño will peak between October and December 2026, meaning after the monsoon season in India. Some weather agencies even predict that sea surface temperatures could rise 2.6°C to 3.0°C above normal by December. If this happens, it would surpass the most severe El Niños ever recorded, those of 1950 and 2015-16. Experts call such extreme heat events "Godzilla El Niños."

Godzilla El Niños is an informal coined term for an extraordinarily powerful El Niño event. It describes episodes where sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific rise 2°C or more above normal, significantly altering global weather patterns.

Effects felt worldwide

The effects of El Niño are already being felt worldwide. Anticipating a drought, the Panama Canal Authority has begun reducing the draft size of ships to conserve water. This seasonal change threatens flooding in Latin America and the Caribbean, while warnings have emerged of weakening monsoons and severe droughts in India, Australia and South Africa. This could also pose a significant threat to global food security.

How can it affect India?

El Niño is generally associated with weaker monsoon rainfall over India. Although it is expected to develop after the current monsoon season, it may still influence weather during the post-monsoon and winter months. It can alter rainfall distribution, increase temperatures and affect regional climate patterns, which will directly affect agriculture and lead to an impact on food chains.

El Niño often contributes to above-normal temperatures in many parts of India. It may also influence cyclone activity in the Indian Ocean and alter winter rainfall over northwestern India. However, its effects vary depending on its strength and interactions with other climate systems, including the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).