RBI Holds Repo Rate Steady At 5.5%, Signals Neutral Policy Stance

On Wednesday, August 6, RBI Governor Sanjay Malhotra kept the repo rate at 5.5 per cent. He maintained the policy stance as "neutral". According to the RBI, inflation is expected to remain under control this year due to a healthy monsoon season.

Policy Stance Unchanged

The RBI Governor said that the central bank's Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) unanimously decided to keep the repo rate unchanged at 5.5 per cent and the policy stance unchanged at neutral. In the June policy meeting, the RBI had delivered a larger-than-expected 50 bps rate reduction and revised its stance to 'neutral' from 'accommodative'.

Trump's Tariffs & GDP Growth

Despite persisting uncertainty over the Trump tariffs and global factors, the RBI maintained real GDP growth for FY26 at 6.5 per cent. The central bank maintained its quarterly growth projections as well. RBI projected Q1FY26 GDP growth at 6.5 per cent, Q2 at 6.7 per cent, Q3 at 6.6 per cent, Q4 at 6.3 per cent and Q1FY27 at 6.6 per cent.

CPI Inflation Forecast

The central bank cut the FY26 CPI inflation forecast to 3.1 per cent from 3.7 per cent earlier. Q2FY26 inflation estimates were trimmed to 2.1 per cent from 3.4 per cent earlier, Q3 estimates were lowered to 3.1 per cent from 3.9 per cent, and Q4 estimates were maintained at 4.4 per cent.

However, the central bank expects a spike in inflation next year. The RBI projected CPI inflation for Q1FY27 at 4.9 per cent.