India’s Q3 FY26 GDP Growth Likely At 8.3%, Union Bank Report Cites GST Rate Cuts Boosting Demand

New Delhi: India’s gross domestic product growth for the third quarter of the current financial year (Q3 FY26) will likely remain elevated at 8.3 per cent, driven by demand fuelled by goods and services tax (GST) rate cut despite an unfavourable base effect, a report has said. The report from Union Bank of India said that gross value added growth for Q3 FY26 likely improved to 8 per cent from 6.5 per cent in Q3 FY25, though it may be marginally slower than the 8.1 per cent recorded in the second quarter.

"GDP data for Q3 FY26, due on February 27, likely clocked 8.3 per cent, sharply higher from the same period previous year (Q3 FY25: 6.4 per cent)," the report said. Nominal GDP growth is estimated to have slowed to 8.5 per cent, down from 8.7 per cent in Q2 and 10.3 per cent in the same period last year, due to a fall in GDP deflator amid easing inflation, the report further said.

The bank noted its estimates are based on the old base year, given the uncertainty with respect to the impact from the base year revision on GDP numbers following the base‑year revision by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. While the growth outlook for FY26 remains broadly resilient and early indicators for FY27 suggest continued momentum, the annual estimates have to be revisited once clarity emerges on the forthcoming GDP base revision, the report said.

The Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation (MoSPI) will release the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) data with the revised base year of 2022-23 on Friday. FY 2022-23 has been chosen as the base year of the new series and revised inputs for the new series aim to strengthen estimates across institutional sectors, especially private corporations and MSME-heavy activities where data gaps have long persisted, the government had earlier said.

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